7 days agoMan Utd chief Woodward: Solskjaer job secure

first_imgMan Utd chief Woodward: Solskjaer job secureby Paul Vegas7 days agoSend to a friendShare the loveEd Woodward says Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will remain Manchester United manager no matter what happens against Liverpool on Sunday.Supporters are growing restless after United’s spluttering start which sees them in 12th with nine points from eight games.But Woodward insists the club have a long-term plan that includes Solskjaer at the helm.”Ole has also instilled the discipline back into an environment where we may have lacked it in recent years,” said Woodward in an address to staff at Old Trafford. “He is building a squad that respects the club’s history, in which players work hard and respect their team-mates.”No one is bigger than the club. The changes we saw over the summer have resulted in a very young squad. But it’s also a squad, with the players and the culture, that provides a base camp for us to build and grow from as we start our new journey.”He added: “Ole’s vision maps exactly to the core three football objectives we have: we must win trophies, we must play attacking football, and we must give youth its chance,” said Woodward.”The middle section of last season, after Ole’s arrival, feels most relevant to what we want to achieve and where we want to be, we saw a team playing fast, fluid football, with a clear representation of the style and philosophy the manager wants.” TagsTransfersAbout the authorPaul VegasShare the loveHave your saylast_img read more

Video: Dalvin Cook’s Little Brother Meets Ole Miss’ Football Team

first_imgDalvin Cook celebrating with his helmet off.MIAMI GARDENS, FL – DECEMBER 30: MVP Dalvin Cook #4 of the Florida State Seminoles celebrates their 33 to 32 win over the Michigan Wolverines during the Capitol One Orange Bowl at Sun Life Stadium on December 30, 2016 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Marc Serota/Getty Images)Deandre Burnett is a guard on the Ole Miss basketball team. He’s also the brother of Dalvin Cook, Florida State’s top player.Ole Miss and Florida State will hit the field Monday night to open the 2016 season in the Camping World Kickoff. The Seminoles’ best player, running back Dalvin Cook, has a unique connection to Ole Miss: his brother plays basketball for the Rebels.Cook’s brother, Deandre Burnett, will be eligible to play guard for Ole Miss this season after sitting out last year. He’s a transfer from the University of Miami.In this hilarious video released today by Ole Miss basketball, Burnett meets Rebels quarterback Chad Kelly and members of the Ole Miss defense. When he is introduced to the latter, things get interesting.? Our dynamic new guard Deandre Burnett, brother of FSU’s Dalvin Cook, meets Chad Kelly & the @OleMissFB team ??? pic.twitter.com/uGZNdN4y4m— Ole Miss Basketball (@OleMissMBB) September 1, 2016That’s fantastic social media work by Ole Miss. Well-done.Florida State and Ole Miss kickoff at 8:00 p.m. ET Monday night from Camping World Stadium in Orlando. ABC will have the broadcast.last_img read more

Edmonton trying to deepen relationship with First Nations

first_imgAPTN National NewsEdmonton signed a “declaration on Aboriginal relations” in 2005 to improve relations with their Aboriginal residents.Since then a dozen cities have looked at emulating that model.APTN National News reporter Keith Laboucan takes a look at what impacts the strategy has had so far.last_img

Family reacts to arrest of man accused of killing Tina Fontaine

first_imgAPTN National NewsThe man accused of killing 15-year old Tina Fontaine will make his first court appearance in Winnipeg Tuesday.Raymond Cormier, 53, has been charged with 2nd degree murder in the teen’s death.APTN’s Dennis Ward has more on the impact Fontaine’s death is having in her home city.dward@aptn.calast_img

A Brazilian auctions her virginity receives 15 Million offer from

first_imgCasablanca- Today, you can find anything exposed for sale on the internet—even a girl’s virginity! Catarina Migliorini, the Brazilian college girl who stirred a polemic by auctioning off her virginity online 15 months ago, is now doing it again after the initial deal proved to be a total failure. Surprisingly, someone has even proposed to her!We all remember the 21-year-old Migliorini who had sold her virginity online for $ 780,000. Well, the Japanese billionaire who won the online bid against three other bidders seemingly changed his mind, and Migliorini said she was the victim of a well-sewed dupery, especially after she shot the Justin-Sisely-made documentary “Virgins Wanted” on that very auction.The controversial Brazilian college student re-launched the online auction again, and this time on her own website, VirginsWanted2.com. Since then, one of the most tempting offers she has received for her virginity is $440,000. However, Migliorini is now raising the bar higher after she has recently received a $1.5 million marriage proposal from an undisclosed Arab billionaire. Hence, she has disregarded the $440, 000 offer, extended the deadline for bids until February 14 and started probing the very tempting marriage offer.“”I decided to continue because I received a proposal from an Arab millionaire and I’m thinking about it, [because] this proposal involves a possible marriage,” she was quoted as saying by The Huffington Post.” I decided to extend the time so I could analyze everything well in advance.”Migliorini seemed very optimistic about the Arab billionaire’s recent offer, describing the Arab proposer as a “romantic,” “handsome” and “very intelligent” man, who “lives in a beautiful mansion [and] speaks 11 languages.”Migliorini claims that she plans to donate 90% of the auction money for charity, mainly to enable certain associations in the Brazilian state of Santa Catarina, where she’s from, to build homes for people in need.However, according to Huffington Post, Australian filmmaker Sisely said he was surprised to hear Migliorini speak about the 90% charity donation part, since she had affirmed to him that offering her virginity for sale was “a business decision for her.”© Morocco World News. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, rewritten or redistributedlast_img read more

Football Talent remains with Ohio State defensive ends despite depth departure

Ohio State freshman defensive end Chase Young (2) sacks Maryland quarterback Caleb Rowe and forces a fumble during the Ohio State-Maryland game on Oct. 7. Ohio State won 62-14. Credit: Jack Westerheide | Photo EditorThere was a case to be made that Ohio State’s defensive end depth in 2017 was as strong as any in college football. It could even have been the best of the past several seasons.It not only had the 2016 Big Ten Defensive Lineman of the Year in Tyquan Lewis, but also the 2017 winner in Nick Bosa, as well as future NFL draft selections Jalyn Holmes and Sam Hubbard. Waiting behind the four starters were a pair of former top defensive end prospects in five-star freshman Chase Young and four-star redshirt freshman Jonathon Cooper, both of whom spelled the starters when needed.That depth was envious in 2017. It will not be there in 2018.Ohio State lost Hubbard to the draft while Holmes and Lewis both graduated, leaving Bosa, Young and Cooper as the only returning players at defensive end.“We’ll find some guys to play with them,” defensive line coach Larry Johnson said after the Cotton Bowl. “We’ll make some changes. We’ll make sure those guys have a chance to be fresh. We’re a long ways away from that, but I think we’ll be OK.”The concern with Ohio State’s defensive end group will not come from the talent present. Bosa and Young could be a dynamic pairing at the top, potentially the most explosive duo in college football, if the talent they have shown in the past continues in 2018. Cooper will present the Buckeyes with a strong third option in the rotation.And even though Young and Cooper have only part of one season full of garbage time minutes under their belts, they both feel ready to step into larger roles in the 2018 season.“I think we were prepared right now,” Young said after the Cotton Bowl. “But even this spring and this winter and the summer, it’s going to get us, and after all three of those [seasons], man, I think we going to be there. Just watch out.”The depth from there takes a bit of a hit and will remain questionable heading into the season.Since the bowl game in December, Ohio State has a clearer vision of who will be able to provide backup to next year’s starters. The Buckeyes brought in defensive end recruits four-star Tyreke Smith, four-star Tyler Friday and three-star Alex Williams. However, Friday will be making the change from defensive tackle to end while Williams might get a shot at playing tight end in college.Even with the recruits coming in, it seems unlikely any of them will have extended roles. None are as highly regarded as Young coming out of high school. Young appeared in 10 games and had 3.5 sacks while Cooper played in nine games.Still, that playing time proved valuable for the pair. It was given chances to play against collegiate competition — though almost always toward the end of blowouts. Bosa remembers that even when the game was not on the line, the playing time was important for his own development.“My freshman year, I was able to play a decent amount,” Bosa said. “Just get that big game experience. Just get used to the speed of the game. It’s a lot different than high school and you just learn a lot when you actually get in there, you can’t really replicate it in practice.”The recruits could be thrust into playing time due to the lack of depth, but none are expected to have Young’s impact. He demonstrated speed and elusiveness during his freshman season that has convinced the Buckeyes he will be a force when he steps into a starting role for Ohio State.Cooper’s name often gets lost in the shuffle — overlooked in favor of Bosa and Young — when looking ahead to 2018. Cooper did not have as much impactful playing time as Young in 2017 and had just two sacks. But the players all believe he has the chance to be another top option for the Buckeyes when they need relief.“If you name me and Nick, you’ve got to name Coop too,” Young said after the Cotton Bowl. “Coop, his motor is unreal and I don’t think guys have seen a lot of him this year, but like I said with [defensive tackle] Davon Hamilton, you going to see a lot of him next year, you going to see what he brings to the table.”Ohio State is going to have to deal with a lack of depth, but there is still plenty of talent at defensive end. With Young, Bosa and Cooper, the Buckeyes have a formidable trio that should present challenges to opposing offensive lines, just like they did in 2017.“I think it could be the best pass-rushing unit ever,” Bosa said on Jan. 19. “I think it could be a step up from last year just because they’ve really set the bar for us and we’re going to enhance it and just so much talent on this D-line right now, even though we’re young. Some of the best talent that I’ve ever seen, so it’s going to be really good once we get all the chemistry together.” read more

Dyche says Burnley will battle to avoid relegation

first_imgA year after competing in European football, English Premier League club Burnley might get demoted to the Championship.Last season, Burnley was competing in the UEFA Europa League.And this season, the team is battling to avoid relegation from the English Premier League to the Championship.“We are fortunate in the sense other than the last season, which was clearly a strong season, the other seasons we have always been in and around it and searching for wins to make sure we got points on the board,” Sean Dyche told Sky Sports.Burnley FC v Manchester City - Premier LeagueMatch Preview: Burnley vs Liverpool Boro Tanchev – August 30, 2019 Premier League leaders Liverpool travel to Burnley for the Matchday 4 of the 2019-20 Premier League campaign.“It is not new territory. [We have] had a lot of different demands this season. I think we have come through that somewhat.”“[But] there are no guarantees. I mentioned that last week so the next one doesn’t owe you anything,” he added.“We are going down to a decent Watford side. They have had ups and downs in their season so far themselves but they are a good outfit.”“They have potential going forwards and they can open up a game. They have been pretty defensively strong other than the ups and downs that a lot of Premier League teams have so we certainly have got to be right on our performance there,” he commented.last_img read more

Benitez amazed by Schars brilliant solo goal

first_imgNewcastle manager Rafa Benitez says he was surprised Fabian Schar’s solo goal in their 3-0 home win against Cardiff City on Saturday.Benitez praised Schar for his moment of individual brilliance after he scored a stunning goal against Cardiff City at St James Park.Schar went on a 40-yard dribble before sending the ball flying into the bottom left corner, leaving Cardiff City goalkeeper Neil Etheridge helpless.The defender also scored in the second half to complete his brace and to double Newcastle’s advantage. Ayoze Perez completed the scoring in stoppage time to make it 3-0.“Not the first one,” Benitez told Sky Sports when asked if he knew Schar had the ability to score such a goal.“You can expect him to score maybe from a corner but he’s a player with quality and he was going forward. It was a great goal.”Premier LeaguePremier League Betting: Match-day 5 Stuart Heath – September 14, 2019 Going into the Premier League’s match-day five with a gap already beginning to form at the top of the league. We will take a…Newcastle United climbed out of the relegation zone after their first win in nine Premier League games, and Benitez was delighted with the result.“We played extra-time in the FA Cup and scored four goals – that gave everyone confidence today,” he said.“We could see from the first minute our team wanted to get three points against a rival. We did really well. Everyone has to be pleased.“My message to the fans was to stay calm and support the team – the players did well and the fans enjoyed every minute.”last_img read more

Local pilot killed in small plane crash near San Francisco

first_img Categories: Local San Diego News FacebookTwitter April 7, 2018 KUSI Newsroom FALLBROOK (KUSI) — A pilot from San Diego County, and vice commander of the Civil Air Patrol’s Pacific region, was believed to have been killed while flying his small plane in bad weather north of San Francisco, deputies said Saturday.Carl Morrison, 75, was flying his 1990 Mooney M20J propeller-driven plane from Petaluma Municipal Airport to his home field at Fallbrook, north of San Diego, after working Friday as a consultant with the Sonoma County Water Agency, according to a Facebook post from his family.“We are so saddened by the passing of our husband, father, and friend,* the family’s Facebook post read. Morrison had been studying atmospheric rivers, the type of storm that hit the Bay Area Friday, according to the Santa Rose Press-Democrat newspaper.The retired Marine had donated hundreds of hours to searching for lost civilian pilots in the CAP, a volunteer agency.At about 6:40 p.m. Friday, Sonoma County Sheriff’s deputies received a call from the U.S. Air Force that a small plane’s emergency radio beeper was pinging from east of Petaluma, a city about 40 miles north of San Francisco.Deputies rushed to the coordinates, on Sonoma Mountain, but couldn’t immediately locate the plane, Sonoma County Sheriff’s Sgt. Spencer Crum told City News Service.At about the same time, a woman from San Diego County called the Petaluma Police Department to report that her husband was supposed to have left the Petaluma Municipal Airport in his Mooney M20 to head back to Southern California, and was overdue home, Crum said.More than three hours after the initial report, sheriff’s deputies spotted a small fire in a remote ravine near the 3600 block of Manor Lane, outside Petaluma. Deputies hiked to the location and found the downed aircraft and the body of the man believed to be the pilot, Crum said.The National Transportation Safety Board was expected to investigate the crash.According to the Santa Rosa newspaper, Morrison was an attorney and often flew his plane to business meetings around the country.Morrison was a 20-year member of the Marine Corps., retiring as a lawyer and public affairs officer in 1986 in the rank of lieutenant colonel, according to his law office website as quoted by the Press-Democrat. He graduated from Brigham Young University in 1966 before obtaining a law degree from DePaul University in Chicago in 1976, the newspaper reported. KUSI Newsroom, Posted: April 7, 2018 Local pilot killed in small plane crash near San Franciscolast_img read more

DID YOU HEAR… Detox Facility Proposals Public Hearing With The ZBA Has

first_imgWILMINGTON, MA — The Public Hearing for the Detox Facility Proposal slated for the Wilmington Board of Appeals meeting on Wednesday, August 8 at 7pm at Town Hall has been POSTPONED, again, to Wednesday, September 12 at 7pm at Town Hall.The applicant (Bettering LLC) requested a continuance. Their representatives will NOT be at the meeting and there is expected to be no discussion on the matter.The public hearing began back on February 14 when approximately 200 residents packed the Town Hall Auditorium. Attorney Mark Bobrowski and project engineer Ben Osgood received heavy criticism from three Board of Appeals members and more than 20 speakers from the audience, most of whom expressed a concern over a lack of answers and information, particularly surrounding the facility’s security procedures.After 3.5 hours of discussion, the board unanimously voted to continue the public hearing to its Wednesday, April 25 meeting.  The hearing, however, has been subsequently rescheduled multiple times as the Board of Appeals waits for the Planning Board to complete site plan review.Bettering LLC is next scheduled to be in front of the Planning Board on Tuesday, August 7, after its public hearing for site plan review and a stormwater management permit was continued from Tuesday, July 10.Like Wilmington Apple on Facebook. Follow Wilmington Apple on Twitter. Follow Wilmington Apple on Instagram. Subscribe to Wilmington Apple’s daily email newsletter HERE. Got a comment, question, photo, press release, or news tip? Email wilmingtonapple@gmail.com.Share this:TwitterFacebookLike this:Like Loading… RelatedDID YOU HEAR?… The Detox Facility Proposal’s Public Hearing Has Been Postponed To June 13In “Government”Concerned Citizens Of Wilmington Reminds Residents Of Public Hearing On Proposed Drug Treatment Center On Sept. 12In “Government”Town Proposes New Rules & Regulations For Subdividing Land; Public Hearing Set For September 10In “Government”last_img read more

After Arkema Fires Investigators Call For Better Storm Protections At Chemical Plants

first_img Share At least 21 first responders suffered from exposure to toxic fumes and were taken to a nearby hospital. According to the CSB’s report, police officers were found vomiting at the scene.The company is facing multiple lawsuits from some of those first responders, nearby residents and local counties.  Harris County prosecutors are also looking into criminal charges against the company or its employees.Harris County District Attorney Kim Ogg said Thursday the county will present evidence to a grand jury in the coming weeks.CSB Safety Video about the 2017 Fire at the Arkema Chemical Plant in Crosby, Texas, following Hurricane Harvey:In a statement, Arkema said it was pleased with the CSB’s report, which the company said “accurately depicts the unforeseeable nature of the situation” from the six feet of water that flooded the plant. In Harvey’s immediate aftermath, Arkema CEO Rich Rowe apologized to nearby residents, saying that despite the company’s preparations for the storm, “no one anticipated we’d be looking at a site with six feet of water on it.”The company said its employees, some of whom moved increasingly-unstable chemicals by hand during the storm in an effort to keep them cooled, went to “extraordinary lengths, under difficult conditions” to keep the facility safe.Still, the investigation report noted the company could have done more to address flooding risks before the storm.“None of Arkema’s safeguards used to address electrical power failure met company or industry standards for analyzing independent protection layers for Harvey-level flooding,” the report read.The CSB, which has no regulatory authority, said the Environmental Protection Agency should require companies to prevent hazards from self-combusting chemicals. It also called on industry to step up its own standards for emergency planning.“More robust industry guidance is needed to help hazardous chemical facilities better prepare for extreme weather events, such as flooding, hurricanes, snowstorms, tornadoes, or droughts,” the report said. 00:00 /00:42 Listencenter_img X To embed this piece of audio in your site, please use this code: Courtesy U.S. Chemical Safety BoardBurned-out trailers sit at the Arkema chemical plant in Crosby, Texas, after Harvey flooded the plant and caused organic peroxides stored in the trailers to catch fire.Federal investigators say chemical plants across the country need tougher safeguards against hurricanes and flooding.The recommendation comes as part of a final report on fires that broke out at a Houston-area plant that was flooded by Hurricane Harvey’s unprecedented rainfall.In the report, the U.S. Chemical Safety Board said the insurer for the Arkema, Inc. plant in Crosby had warned about flood risks a year before the storm, noting the facility sits in a floodplain. But the report found employees there were never given that information.“I think the failure here was that people, not just Arkema, but industry in general, didn’t evaluate sufficiently the risk of this extreme flooding,” said CSB Investigator in Charge Mark Wingard.Organic peroxides that were stored at the Arkema plant needed to be cooled below a certain temperature to avoid catching fire. The chemicals burst into flames after the plant lost power and the refrigerators failed.last_img read more

Strong Support for Superintendant Dance Following Social Media Post

first_imgIn the aftermath of the 2016 election there have been a wide range of reactions from genuine fear and disbelief to calls for unity and solidarity moving forward. Thanks to one of the most divisive campaigns in modern American history which saw President-elect Donald Trump call Mexicans called rapists and murderers and demand a ban on all Muslins entering the country, the days following the election have been just as divisive.Baltimore County Public Schools Superintendant S. Dallas Dance is facing calls for his resignation over a re-tweet. (Courtesy photo)With citizens across the country protesting the election of Donald J. Trump as the 45th President of the United States and with each protest people talk about what his election means for them, their family and friends and it’s almost always the fear of what may come. Many students across the country have cited incidents of racial discrimination post election.Since election night, Baltimore County Public Schools Superintendant S. Dallas Dance has been under fire over what some have called a controversial tweet. On Nov. 9, Dance retweeted former Montgomery County Public Schools Superintendent Joshua Starr. The tweet in question reads:“Educators: tomorrow pls show your muslim, black, latino, jewish, disabled, or just non-white St’s, that you love them and will protect them!” Now Dance is facing backlash from parents and local lawmakers asking for an apology and some even calling for his resignation.Ann Morton tweeted “I am incredibly offended by this tweet. Non-white???? What a message, disgusting!  You should all be fired!!!”Joanna Rutkowski tweeted “I am appalled that you sent this out. You should be fired.”However, Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz quickly issued a statement backing Dance. “Superintendent Dance continues to have my full support. His sensitivity toward students whose ethnicities, religions, color and gender were under attack during this election should be commended, not reprimanded,” Kamenetz said in a statement.Maryland Speaker Pro Tem Delegate Adrienne A. Jones also offered her full support. “I support Dr. Dallas Dance in his effort to make certain all students in the Baltimore County Public School system feel safe and welcome during the school day.  I did not find his tweet offensive, but rather an effort on his part to have teachers reassure students who are vulnerable and often singled out in a negative way because of race or religion, that they have nothing to fear during the course of their school day.Since this campaign season began, Baltimore County has seen a rise in minority students being the victim of intimidation and negative racial and religious remarks.  The efforts by Dr. Dance can only be seen as the duty of an administrator to protect all students from such undesirable and destructive behavior.  It is unfortunate, but Baltimore County School Board member Ann Miller, and Delegates Joe Cluster and Pat McDonough will never know what a student who is a minority feels like when they are faced with such religious and racially insensitive behavior,” Jones said in statement issued to the AFRO.On Nov. 16 Baltimore county School Board member Ann Miller wrote an opinion piece in the Baltimore Sun calling for Dance to be fired.Dance released the following statement on Nov. 10: “As the Superintendent of one of the largest most diverse school systems in our country, I always lead from an equity lens with an intense focus on all student populations and ensuring they feel welcome and supported. Education is not void of politics and during the last two years, our country has had one of the most divisive campaigns in modern history. Comments were made that disenfranchised several groups of students we serve in Baltimore County Public Schools.As our nation moves forward, it is our collective responsibility to make sure all students feel safe and know we are their advocates. As I continue leading our school system and as a member of several educational organizations, my continued focus is to work with local, state and national government representatives to move public education forward for all students.”last_img read more

Cardinals Blank Charleston Southern

first_img Full Schedule Roster  The University of Louisville women’s tennis team blanked Charleston Southern 7-0 Saturday afternoon in Spartansburg, S.C.The Cardinals took the doubles points when Raven Neely and Sena Suswam defeated Yana Morar and Tiffany Pyritz 6-2. Nikolina Jovic and Chloe Hamlin joined forces to down Michelle Schultz and Liz Williams 6-2 to clinch the point.  Dina Chaika and Diana Wong fell to Filippa Ericson and Kimberley Koerner 6-3. Preview Next Match: Furman 2/3/2019 | 12:00 p.m.center_img Matchup History Louisville swept the singles with Aleksandra Mally taking down Madalina Man 6-1, 6-1 at No. 1.  Raven Neely rolled over Filippa Ericson 6-1, 6-0. Nikolina Jovic survived a tight match, winning 7-6 (5), 6-4 over Kimberley Koerner.  Chloe Hamlin dropped her first set 7-6 and then roared back, winning the next two 6-0 and 6-1.  Diana Wong handled Liz Williams 6-4, 6-1 at No. 5 and lone freshman Dina Chaika dropped her first set 6-2 but came back with a 6-0 and a 10-6 set to complete the sweep.The Cardinals play host Furman tomorrow at noon.Singles 1. Aleksandra Mally (Lou) def. Madalina Man 6-1, 6-12. Raven Neely (Lou) def. Filippa Ericson 6-1, 6-03. Nikolina Jovic (Lou) def. Kimberley Koerner 7-6 (5), 6-44. Chloe Hamlin (Lou) def. Michelle Schultz 6-7 (5) 6-0, 6-15. Diana Wong (Lou) def. Liz Williams  6-4, 6-16. Dina Chaika (Lou) def. Tiffany Pyritz 2-6, 6-0, 10-6Doubles1. Raven Neely/Sena Suswam (Lou) def. Yana Morar/Tiffany Pyritz 6-22. Nikolina Jovic/Chloe Hamlin (Lou) def. Michelle Schultz/Liz Williams 6-23. Filippa Ericson/Kimberley Koerner def. Diana Wong/Dina Chaika (Lou) 3-6 Print Friendly Versionlast_img read more

Strictly Business Podcast Group Nines Ben Lerer on How Digital Publishers Deal

first_imgIt’s not easy for any digital publisher to make money in the age of the very powerful platforms that dictate the terms of the content business. Despite the challenges, Group Nine CEO Ben Lerer is sanguine about the future of the digital media ecosystem.In the latest episode of Variety‘s “Strictly Business” podcast, Lerer acknowledges the current state of play with Facebook in particular is not ideal but there’s progress worth noting.“Do we feel like we’re being fairly compensated for the value we’re creating on Facebook today? No,” he tells Variety co-editor-in-chief Andrew Wallenstein. “Do we feel we’re being better compensated than we were a year ago? Yes.”Lerer called on Facebook to move faster toward sharing revenue from its News Feed, as opposed to just from other ancillary components of the platform like the Watch video hub. But while he thinks Facebook could do more to grease the wheels of monetization, he’s also critical of unrealistic expectations some in the industry have about the platform paying content companies. ×Actors Reveal Their Favorite Disney PrincessesSeveral actors, like Daisy Ridley, Awkwafina, Jeff Goldblum and Gina Rodriguez, reveal their favorite Disney princesses. Rapunzel, Mulan, Ariel,Tiana, Sleeping Beauty and Jasmine all got some love from the Disney stars.More VideosVolume 0%Press shift question mark to access a list of keyboard shortcutsKeyboard Shortcutsplay/pauseincrease volumedecrease volumeseek forwardsseek backwardstoggle captionstoggle fullscreenmute/unmuteseek to %SPACE↑↓→←cfm0-9Next UpJennifer Lopez Shares How She Became a Mogul04:350.5x1x1.25×1.5x2xLive00:0002:1502:15 Popular on Variety center_img “I don’t think there we’re going to get to the place where Rupert Murdoch and a lot of people would like us to get to, which is where we are just going to get an affiliate fee,” he observed. “But I do believe there will be some version of an affiliate fee that will be paid out in a meritocracy where the brands that create the best content and best engagement will be able to share in the wealth Facebook creates.”Lerer believes he’s well positioned to participate in that wealth given how aggressive he’s been with programming for Facebook with Group Nine, a holding company launched last year with backing from Discovery Inc. that includes Thrillist, Seeker, the Dodo and NowThis.He’s betting the economics of digital media will evolve to the point where brands will eventually build businesses that rival those of TV channels.“The smart big media companies can see a world where that happens, and if they’re not set up for it and they’re not making investments, partnerships and acquisitions with the best digital publishers, it’s going to be really, really unpleasant for them because then they will have let the massive advantage they have slip away,” Lerer noted. “[Discovery CEO David] Zaslav is not waiting for the other shoe to drop. He’s seeing where the future is going. We’re really lucky to be in business with him.”“Strictly Business” is Variety‘s weekly podcast featuring conversations with industry leaders about the business of entertainment. Listen to the podcast below for the full interview, or check out previous “Strictly Business” episodes featuring comedian/actor/producer Kevin Hart, ICM Partners agent Esther Newberg, and HBO chairman/CEO Richard Plepler. A new episode debuts each Tuesday and can be downloaded on iTunes, Google Play, Stitcher, and SoundCloud.last_img read more

Twitter Names New Heads of US News Sports Content Partnerships EXCLUSIVE

first_imgTwitter has filled some key roles in its reorganized content partnerships group in the U.S. — promoting company insiders instead of outside hires.In June, Twitter’s global content partnerships group, led by VP Kay Madati, shifted to a regional management structure rather than one organized around content verticals.With the reorg, global video-partnerships head Todd Swidler and global head of news Peter Greenberger left Twitter. Laura Froelich — formerly global director of sports content partnerships — was moved into the new role of head of U.S. partnerships, while David Grossman, formerly Twitter’s global head of entertainment, is now head of U.S. entertainment (reporting to Froelich).Now Froelich has picked two other lieutenants: TJ Adeshola as head of U.S. sports and Nick Sallon as head of U.S. news. Popular on Variety Pictured above: TJ Adeshola (l.), Nick Sallon Adeshola (pictured above, left) will lead all U.S. sports partnerships at Twitter, after spending the previous few years managing Twitter’s partnerships with major U.S. sports leagues, including the NFL and the NBA. Before joining Twitter in 2012, he worked on ESPN’s digital sales and marketing team.Sallon (above, right) spent the previous two years as the GM of news for live video. He joined Twitter in 2015 with the company’s acquisition of Periscope, where he led content strategy. Sallon has focused on developing digital video strategies and revenue opportunities for news organizations, including working on programming for Twitter like Bloomberg’s TicToc and Buzzfeed News’ “AM2DM.” Prior to Twitter, he ran content acquisition and business development at Aereo (the Barry Diller-backed live-TV streaming startup sued by big broadcasters).In addition, Madati announced two other new members of the global content partnerships group: Stacy Minero as head of content creation, and Tyler Vaught as head of creators and Niche, Twitter’s branded-content program for creators.Minero, who reports to Madati, will focus on branded content. She’s spent the past four years at Twitter on brand strategy and agency development, where her team advised brands on content strategy and creative ideas to launch campaigns or win cultural moments. In 2017, she launched Twitter’s Fuel Team, designed to scale creative strategy to a broader slate of clients and offer in-house editing to optimize video for Twitter.Vaught is tasked with driving the global strategy around how Twitter partners with creators for branded and original content. He has been at Twitter for three years, previously as Niche’s head of West Coast business development. Vaught reports directly to Minero.According to Twitter, even though it dissolved the dedicated live-video team, video remains a strong strategic focus for the company.During the second quarter of 2018, according to Twitter, it continued to invest in video infrastructure, improving the quality of the video experience while increasing reach and engagement for content owners. Also in Q2, the company signed 50 new live-streaming, video-on-demand, video highlight, and Twitter Amplify video-ad deals, including with Disney/ESPN, NBCUniversal and Viacom. ×Actors Reveal Their Favorite Disney PrincessesSeveral actors, like Daisy Ridley, Awkwafina, Jeff Goldblum and Gina Rodriguez, reveal their favorite Disney princesses. Rapunzel, Mulan, Ariel,Tiana, Sleeping Beauty and Jasmine all got some love from the Disney stars.More VideosVolume 0%Press shift question mark to access a list of keyboard shortcutsKeyboard Shortcutsplay/pauseincrease volumedecrease volumeseek forwardsseek backwardstoggle captionstoggle fullscreenmute/unmuteseek to %SPACE↑↓→←cfm0-9Next UpJennifer Lopez Shares How She Became a Mogul04:350.5x1x1.25×1.5x2xLive00:0002:1502:15last_img read more

Kate Hudson enjoying her singlehood

first_imgKate Hudson is busy shuffling between her acting assignment and her two kids, but the actor is happy with being single.The 36-year-old Kung Fu Panda 3 star finds it nice to get acquainted with herself alone, reported Us magazine.“It’s nice to get acquainted with myself alone,” the Kung Fu Panda 3 star said. “You know, the goal when you get into a relationship is not to be out of the relationship. It’s to try to stay in the relationship. But if it doesn’t work, you can’t force those things. Also Read – A fresh blend of fame“It’s hard to let go of something, even when you know that it’s not right. I’ve chosen something in my life that I’m very comfortable with that goes against a lot of people’s more traditional feelings. If something’s not right, I don’t believe in maintaining something for the sake of what’s considered a traditional family,” Hudson said.The Almost Famous actor is enjoying the way her life is taking shape and is at peace with her sons Ryder, 11, and four-year-old Bingham.last_img read more

WestJet adds Belize City with exclusive nonstops

first_img Travelweek Group Tuesday, August 9, 2016 Share WestJet adds Belize City with exclusive nonstops Posted bycenter_img << Previous PostNext Post >> Tags: Belize, New Routes, WestJet CALGARY — Starting Oct. 29 WestJet will offer nonstop service from Toronto to Philip S. W. Goldson International Airport in Belize, the only Canadian carrier to do so.Flights depart Toronto at 9:15 a.m., arriving in Belize City at 11:59 a.m. Introductory fares start at $267.66 one-way, until Aug. 15.The flight’s departure time will allow guests to connect seamlessly from many cities across Canada to a destination known for its large Canadian ex-pat community, said Bob Cummings, WestJet Executive Vice-President, Commercial. “WestJet continues to respond to the needs of the communities we serve by delivering more choice, competition and lower fares to Canadian travellers,” he said.Karen Bevans, Director of Tourism for Belize, cheered the move, saying the new flight “will boost the demand for Canadian travel to our unique destination … this direct flight from Toronto to Belize City will encourage even more Canadians to venture south to our beautiful jewel,” she said. Canada is one of the strong source markets for tourist arrivals in Belize, she added.More news:  Sunwing offers ultimate package deal ahead of YXU flights to SNU, PUJEarlier this month WestJet also began year-round, nonstop service between Calgary and John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York City. Both the Belize nonstop and the JFK nonstops come on the heels of WestJet’s recent winter schedule announcement of more than 85 new flights across its growing network.last_img read more

Good day And welcome to another week  We had som

first_imgGood day. And welcome to another week.  We had some great weekend weather which I took advantage of watching my son’s football game Saturday and daughter’s soccer and field hockey games yesterday.  None of the games resulted in wins, but I enjoyed myself in spite of the outcomes.  The labor data here in the US provided the equity markets with a pleasant outcome Friday as stocks ended the week on a positive note.  The dollar didn’t have such a good week, dropping just over one and one half percent vs. the major currencies.  This week will be dominated by the FOMC meeting here in the US and the German constitutional court ruling on the other side of the pond.But we will start with a recap of events on Friday.  The US labor department reported the biggest decline in factory jobs in two years, contributing to a disappointing increase in payrolls during August.  The US economy added just 96,000 jobs last month after a revised 141,000 increase in July.  The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a gain of 130,000 jobs.  Factory payrolls declined by 15,000 workers last month and was the major contributor to the drop in jobs.  Details of the report showed the workweek shrank, and the number of industries hiring new workers plunged to the lowest level in almost three years.  Definitely not a good sign for the prospects of the unemployed factory workers, and exactly what the current administration didn’t want to see.  A lot was made of the rebound in the auto industry, but the data showing manufacturing jobs have decreased throws cold water on that line of thought.But the President and his supporters can still point to the unemployment rate which dropped to 8.1%.  Yes, the number of people working dropped, at the same time the unemployment rate also dropped.  Much like last month, the unemployment rate and monthly jobs data seemed to be in conflict.  But unlike last month when the difference was blamed on inconsistencies in the generation of the reports, this month’s conflict could be more easily explained.  Americans are leaving the workforce at a faster pace than they are entering it.   368,000 Americans left the labor force last month, most of them giving up looking for new work.  The participation rate, which shows the share of working-age people in the labor force, fell to 63.5% from 63.7%.  There are currently fewer working-age people in the labor force than at any time since September 1981.  That one piece of data is a great indicator of just how bad things are here in the US.The labor data have increased the odds of action by Bernanke this week.  The Federal Open Markets Committee will be meeting on Wednesday and Thursday, and the Chairman is expected to announce another round of stimulus for the markets during his press conference Thursday morning.  During my presentations out in San Francisco, I shared my thoughts that there was just slightly higher than a 50% chance of another stimulus announcement this month.  I felt it was just too close to the Presidential election for the Fed to act; as they try to avoid the appearance of being too political.  But Chairman Bernanke has pointed toward the stagnant labor market as the key to further stimulus, and Friday’s report should provide him plenty of cover to avoid looking too political.  The markets are certainly expecting Bernanke to announce another round of stimulus; I saw a survey this morning which put the odds of another stimulus announcement this week at 99%!!The question now is exactly what will Bernanke announce.  Some now believe he will model his new program off of the ECB’s, announcing unlimited additional bond buying.  This would allow the Fed to continue purchasing bonds until they feel the economy shows more definite signs of recovery.  The advantage of this program, as shown by the reaction to the ECB’s announcement last week, is that the markets can’t question the ability of the central bank to take action.  But unlike the ECB program which is solely aimed at sovereign debt within 3 years, the Feds new program will likely be aimed at mortgage debt with longer maturities.  Another difference is that the ECB won’t buy bonds unless a country asks for a rescue, and then the bond purchases will come with austerity commitments by the country seeking help.  The Fed’s quantitative easing program won’t have any austerity measure tied to it, in fact it is more of an ‘anti austerity’ program adding to our deficits and debt in the interest of stimulating growth.Friday’s labor report and the resulting increase in expectations for another round of stimulus led to a rally in gold and treasuries and a continued fall in the value of the US$. Investors, worried about the inflationary impact of additional stimulus measures, took gold to the lofty levels it was trading at back in March.  While prices moved down a bit going into the weekend, gold is still firmly entrenched in an upward trend and certainly looks like it will challenge it’s former highs.The dollar lost ground vs. most of the major currencies on Friday, ending a week in which the dollar index fell over 1.5%.  I guess the ‘Chuck is off the desk rally’ held true again.  In years past, whenever Chuck is off the desk for an extended period, we always seem to have a currency rally, and last week’s dollar action was a confirmation of this pattern.  As I explained last week, the reason for the fall in the US$ is a fairly simple case of supply and demand.  The Fed will be creating a whole lot of dollars which it will be using for the bond purchases, and this increase in supply will eventually lead to inflation.  It may not be reflected immediately in the price of goods and services, as international investors still seem to have an appetite for the freshly minted currency.  But eventually the demand will slacken, and at that point we could see a spike in inflation.  Bernanke has told us he is aware of this risk, but he is convinced the Fed can pull the newly created dollars back out of the markets as fast as he is adding them.  I guess we will just have to wait and see if he is correct, but the markets are starting to hedge their bets.The ECB action last week helped the euro push above the $1.28 handle, but it gave it back and is hovering just below it this morning.  Concerns over the German Constitutional ruling due out this week, combined with renewed concerns in Greece put a lid on the appreciation of the single currency.   The German court is expected to give its ruling on Germany’s participation in the European Stability Mechanism on Wednesday.  The court is expected to allow for Germany’s participation, but currency traders are worried they may put stipulations on any future participation of Germany in European bailouts.  Both German Chancellor Angel Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble are confident the German court will allow the establishment of the ESM, allowing the bailouts to continue.Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is due to meet officials from the ECB, IMF, and EU today.  Samaras failed to secure an agreement to the 11.5 billion spending cuts required for the release of the next round of rescue funding.  After this year’s two elections, Samaras is operating with a minority government and must get his two coalition partners to agree to the austerity measures.  At least one of the two is demanding the cuts be combined with growth measures. “The recession is deep and if these measures aren’t accompanied by growth measures, they will be ineffective,” according to Greece’s Democratic Left leader Fotis Kouvelis.  “Our European partners need to know that Greeks can’t take anymore.  Nothing can be taken for granted.”  Sounds like we could be in for some more volatility in Greece.  We warned you that the rollercoaster ride of the euro isn’t over yet, so just make sure you are strapped in!The Canadian dollar rallied to a yearly high this morning after a report showed employment in our northern neighbor rose faster than forecast.  Canadian employment rose by 34,300 jobs in August, offsetting a decrease of 30,400 the month before.  The unemployment rate remained at 7.3%, right on target with median forecasts.  While the number was definitely a positive sign, the Canadian economy is expected to remain in a slow growth mode.  Last week the Bank of Canada left the key interest rate unchanged at 1% in an effort to encourage investment and consumption to drive growth.Carney has reflected a hawkish tone, as increases in the prices of commodities which make up the majority of Canada’s exports threaten to push up Canadian inflation rates.  The increase in commodity prices caused the BOC to reiterate that interest rates may have to be raised in order to prevent inflation from accelerating.  Following last week’s BOC meeting, Carney said “some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate.”  Higher interest rates would give even more support to the Canadian dollar, sending it to new yearly highs.The Australian dollar moved lower in early European trading after a report showed China’s imports slowed.  Both Canada and Australia have commodity driven economies, and the commodity markets are dependent on strong demand  from China.  A report released earlier today showed China’s imports slid 2.6% in August from a year earlier, the first decline since January.  The same report showed Chinese exports rose 2.7% and a different report showed production increased 8.9%.  The Chinese President sounded a warning, saying China’s economic expansion faces ‘notable downward pressure’.The pace of the global economic recovery is going to be dependent on Asia, as both the US and Europe’s economies continue to struggle.  So the news that Chinese imports slowed are worrying.  China has been slowly changing from an export driven economy into one driven more by internal consumption, so the slowdown in imports is concerning.  And concerns regarding the Asian growth prospects were heightened further with the release of Japanese GDP measures which showed the economy grew at just .7% during the 2nd quarter, less than the preliminary reports which predicted a 1.4% increase.  The median forecast of economists was right in the middle of the two figures at 1%.  The spending which was necessitated by last year’s earthquake and tsunami helped push GDP up slightly, but that spending is now over and gridlock in the Japanese parliament is preventing any additional stimulus.  There is a good chance the Japanese economy could slip back into contraction in the 3rd quarter.  I continue to warn against investments in the Japanese yen, and actually look at it as one of the currencies which could fall the most as investors start to move back into higher yielding currencies.To recap. Friday’s monthly jobs reports showed a US economy which is still struggling to recover, and put the possibility of a stimulus announcement by the Fed at almost 100%.  The future of the ESM (and therefore the euro) rests in the hands of a German Constitutional court which is expected to rule later this week.  But the court is widely expected to rule in the euro’s favor, and the single currency continued to rally.  The possibility of another round of stimulus had gold rallying along with the commodity currencies.  The loonie hit a yearly high but the Australian dollar moved lower after a Chinese report showed imports decreasing.  Japan’s GDP came in at ½ of what was originally predicted, and further stimulus isn’t in the cards for the Japanese yen.Currencies today 9/10/12. American Style: A$ $1.0353, kiwi .8106, C$ $1.0239, euro 1.2781, sterling 1.6009, Swiss $1.0562. European Style: rand 8.1789, krone 5.7822, SEK 6.6390, forint 223.04, zloty 3.2178, koruna 19.177, RUB 31.7243, yen 78.28, sing 1.2365, HKD 7.7559, INR 55.3875, China 6.3377, pesos 12.9622, BRL 2.029, Dollar Index 80.336, Oil $96.46, 10-year 1.67%, Silver $33.6925, Gold $1,734.57, and Platinum $1,596.75That’s it for today.  Tough loss for both our football teams this weekend.  Mizzou looked good for the first three quarters in their opening SEC game vs. Georgia, but just couldn’t hang with the dawgs at the end of the game.  And the St. Louis Rams dropped their season opener during the final 10 seconds of the game played up in Detroit.  My son’s high school team got routed on Saturday morning after their game Friday night was delayed because of a storm which rolled through during the first half.  Not a good football weekend, but I enjoyed it still as the weather was absolutely fantastic Saturday and Sunday.  The trading floor has a new look this morning as workers installed several new desks over the weekend to keep up with our growth.  Things are a bit cozier now and I’m sure the noise volume will increase as we put butts in all the new seats; but that is what I like about being out on the floor, all the noise and activity are what makes it a trading floor.  Gone on a bit long this morning, so I will just thank all of you readers for sharing your morning with me.  Hopefully this will be a Marvelous Monday and a great start to your week!Chris Gaffney, CFA SVP & Director of Sales T. 314-951-1619 EverBank World Markets 8300 Eager Road, Ste. 700, St. Louis, MO. 63144 EverBank.comlast_img read more

The Shiller PE SP 500 divided by the 10year av

first_imgThe Shiller P/E (S&P 500 divided by the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings) is now 27, versus a long-term historical norm of 15 prior to the late 1990s bubble. Importantly, the profit margin embedded into the Shiller P/E is currently 6.7% versus a historical norm of just 5.4%. The implied margin is simply the denominator of the Shiller P/E divided by current S&P 500 revenues (the ratio of trailing 12-month earnings to revenues is even higher at 8.9%). As I showed in “Margins, Multiples and the Iron Law of Valuation,” taking this embedded margin into account significantly improves the usefulness and correlation of the Shiller P/E in explaining actual subsequent market returns. With this adjustment, the margin-adjusted Shiller P/E is now nearly 34, easily more than double its historical norm. This fact is important, because the Shiller P/E averaged 40 during the first nine months of 2000 as the tech bubble was peaking. But that Shiller P/E was associated with an embedded profit margin of only 5.0%. Adjusting for that embedded margin brings the margin-adjusted Shiller P/E at the 2000 peak to 37. Quite simply, stocks are a claim not on one or two years of earnings, but on a very long-term stream of cash flows that will actually be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For the S&P 500, that stream has an effective duration of about 50 years. At normal valuations, stocks have a duration of about half that because a larger proportion of the cash flows is delivered up front. The point is that our concerns about valuation aren’t based on what profit margins might do over the next several years. To take earnings-based valuation measures at face value here is essentially a statement that current record-high profit margins, despite being highly cyclical across history, will remain at a permanently high plateau for the next five decades. That’s the only way that one can use current earnings as representative of the long-term stream of cash flows that stocks will deliver over time. In order to use a simple P/E multiple to value stocks, this representativeness assumption is an absolute requirement. On other measures that have an even stronger historical correlation with actual subsequent market returns than either the Shiller P/E or the S&P 500 price/operating earnings ratio, the ratio of stock market capitalization to GDP is now about 1.33, compared to a pre-bubble norm of 0.55. The S&P 500 price/revenue multiple is now about 1.80, versus a historical norm of 0.80. On the measures we find most reliably associated with actual subsequent 10-year market returns (with a correlation of about 90%), the S&P 500 is not just double, but about 120-140% above historical norms. On a broader set of reliable but more varied measures, the elevation averages about 116%. Current equity valuations provide no margin of safety for long-term investors. One might as well be investing on a dare. It may seem preposterous to suggest that equities are literally more than double the level that would provide a historically adequate long-term return, but the same was true in 2000, which is why the S&P 500 experienced negative total returns over the following decade, even by 2010 after it had rebounded nearly 80% from the 2009 lows. Compared with 2000 when we estimated negative 10-year total returns for the S&P 500 even on the most optimistic assumptions, we presently estimate S&P 500 10-year nominal total returns averaging about 1.3% annually over the coming decade. Low interest rates don’t change this expectation—they just make the outlook for a standard investment mix even more dismal and the case for alternative investments stronger than at any point since 2000. I’ll repeat that if one associates historically “normal” equity returns with Treasury bill yields of about 4%, the promise to hold short-term interest rates at zero for 3-4 years only “justifies” equity valuations 12-16% above historical norms. Again, at more than double those historical norms, current equity valuations provide no margin of safety for long-term investors. To put some full-cycle perspective around present valuations, understand that 1929 and 2000 are the only historical references to similar extremes. Moreover, aside from the 2000-2002 bear market (which ended at fairly elevated valuations but still allowed us to shift to a constructive outlook in early 2003), no bear market in history—including 2009—ended with prospective 10-year returns less than 8% (See “Ockham’s Razor and the Market Cycle” to review the arithmetic of these estimates). This was true even in historical periods when short- and long-term interest rates were similar to current levels. Currently, such an improvement in prospective equity returns would require a move to about 1,200 on the S&P 500, which we would view as a fairly pedestrian completion of the current market cycle—certainly not an outlier from the standpoint of historical experience. Major secular valuation lows like 1949, 1974, and 1982 pushed stocks to valuations consistent with prospective 10-year returns over 18% annually, and dragged the S&P 500 price/revenue ratio to about 0.40, and the ratio of market capitalization/GDP to about 0.33. At present, a secular valuation low would require “S&P 500” to be not only an index but a price target—though one that would also make a rather satisfying megaphone pattern out of the past 15 years of market action. Such an outcome only seems preposterous if one ignores the cyclicality of profit margins and assumes they have established a permanently high plateau. In any event, with the current price/revenue ratio at 1.80 and market cap/GDP at 1.33, the notion that stocks are in the early phase of a secular bull market (as some Wall Street analysts have suggested) can only reflect a complete ignorance of the historical record. The Line Between Rational Speculation and Market Collapse However—and this is really where the experience of the past few years and our research-based adaptations come into play—there are some conditions that historically appear capable of supporting what might be called “rational speculation” even in a severely overvalued market. Depending on the level of overvaluation, a safety net might be required in any event, and that would certainly be the case if those conditions were to re-emerge here. But following my 2009 insistence on stress-testing our methods against Depression-era data, and the terribly awkward transition that we experienced until we nailed down these distinctions in our present methods, the central lesson is worth repeating: Neither our stress-testing against Depression-era data, nor the adaptations we’ve made in response extreme yield-seeking speculation, do anything to diminish our conviction that historically reliable valuation measures are of immense importance to investors. Rather, the lessons to be drawn have to do with the criteria that distinguish periods where valuations have little near-term impact from periods where they suddenly matter with a vengeance. I detailed these lessons in my June 16, 2014 comment—“Formula for Market Extremes” (see the section titled Lessons from the Recent Half Cycle). That’s really the point at which we were finally able to put a box around this awkward transition and view it as fully addressed. See also “Air Pockets, Free Falls, and Crashes,” “A Most Important Distinction,” and “Hard-Won Lessons and the Bird in the Hand.” Historically, the emergence of extremely overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions has typically been followed by an “unpleasant skew”—a succession of small but persistent marginal new highs, followed by a vertical collapse in which weeks or months of gains are wiped out in a handful of sessions. In prior market cycles, more often than not, periods of extremely overextended conditions were also already accompanied by a subtle deterioration in market internals or widening credit spreads. In recent years, the persistent yield-seeking speculation encouraged by quantitative easing has weakened the overlap between these two conditions. That is, we’ve had repeated periods of severely overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions, but they often have not been accompanied by internal deterioration or widening credit spreads. In those periods, stocks were generally resilient to significant losses. In contrast—even since 2009—periods that have joined 1) overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions with 2) deteriorating internals or widening credit spreads have been responsible for nearly stairstep market losses. During the tech bubble, we introduced considerations related to market internals (what I often called “trend uniformity”) as an overlay to our value-driven models. So our pre-2009 method of classifying market return/risk profiles had this distinction hard-wired into it. The ensemble methods that came out of our 2009-2010 stress-testing efforts were more effective in market cycles across history—including Depression-era data—but while they included trend-sensitive measures, they didn’t impose them as an overlay. The basic narrative of the transition from those pre-2009 methods to our present ones boils down to 1) our self-inflicted stress testing miss, and 2) the need to re-introduce those overlays (albeit in a somewhat different form) to make our methods more tolerant of speculative bubbles. We certainly learned all of this the hard way, and my hope is that others will draw some benefit from that experience. Unfortunately, my sense is that many have learned entirely the wrong lesson, and are just as vulnerable to the next crash as they were to the other two collapses in recent memory. You can see the effect of imposing those overlays in the narrowing of conditions under which we view a hard-negative outlook as appropriate. See last week’s comment, “Iceberg at the Starboard Bow,” for a chart of the cumulative performance of the S&P 500 across history in periods restricted to the conditions we presently observe. Now, if we do observe an improvement in market internals and credit spreads, it would not make valuations any less obscene, but it would significantly ease our immediate concerns about market losses. A safety net would be required in any event, but there is a range of possible outlooks between hard-negative and constructive with a safety net. I suspect that the range of variation in our investment outlook is likely to be very confusing in the coming years to those who have swallowed the hook that I’m a permabear, because our present methods would have encouraged an unhedged, leveraged investment stance through about 62% of history (including over 20% of recent cycle—though at no time in the past three years). That’s exactly what I encouraged for years following the 1990 bear market—a leveraged stance. Those who’ve followed my work over the long term should recognize that the framework I’ve presented helps to understand both my major successes and my periodic failures—exasperating during bubbles, but ultimately vindicated—through decades in the financial markets. This isn’t an accident, because it also helps to understand the bubbles and crashes of the equity market itself in market cycles across a century of history. What this framework requires, primarily, is the ability to withstand the cognitive dissonance of markets that are outrageously overvalued or undervalued, but persist until subtle deterioration or improvement in observable market internals and credit spreads indicates a shift in investor risk preferences. Again, we completed the transition from our pre-2009 method to our present method of classifying market return/risk profiles in June. The resulting adaptations are robust to market cycles across history, including the Depression, including recent bubbles and crashes, and including the current cycle. With these adaptations in place, nothing in recent years leaves us concerned that we would be unable to navigate a long continuation of the recent bull market (unlikely as we might view that outcome). We don’t need to hope for a market collapse, nor dread the possibility of a further advance. Our primary goal is simply to maintain a historically informed discipline and align our outlook consistently as market conditions change. At present, the fact that we are highly concerned about market risk is a reflection of a market environment that joins extremely overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions with still-troubling dispersion in market internals and a widening of credit spreads. That will change. In short, our concerns about market risk remain extreme at present, and will shift considerably as the evidence changes.last_img read more