APPLE ISLE ON TRACK FOR 2007 NATIONAL 18 YEARS CHAMPIONSHIPS

first_imgTasmania, one of Touch Football’s growth States, will be out to impress at the 18 Years National Championships in Coffs Harbour, New South Wales, from 17 – 20 September, 2007. Tasmania’s best young players have been plucked from around the State to form the Boys and Girls teams that will contest the premier event on the National junior calendar. The teams will be mentored by two of the most experienced coaches in Tasmania, John Dowling (Boys) and Deb Button (Girls). Mr. Dowling, who has coached at representative level for 12 years, and socially for more than 20, has been in charge of the Tasmanian 18 Years Boys team for the past four years.He said he was satisfied with the team that has been picked, but said the key to a successful campaign was not to be overconfident. “You’re goals have to be realistic, and we should realistically be aiming to play on the Saturday, which is finals day,” Dowling said.  In 2004, Dowling’s first year in charge, Tasmania defeated Victoria and South Australia.“That was a magnificent result for us because everyone expected us to finish at the bottom of the table,” Dowling said.Unfortunately the team couldn’t repeat the positive result, finishing near the bottom in 2005. Last year Tasmania drew with the Gold Coast and defeated the Crusaders and Northern Territory.Dowling was looking to 2007 for better results from his charges.“Our main goal is to play on finals day because in 2005 we didn’t win a game and we actually finished up on the Friday, which wasn’t pleasant.” Mr. Dowling said.The standard of Touch Football in Australia’s island state has improved markedly over the last five years.This is largely due to the introduction of a development program from under-12s to opens, as well as an increase in the amount of people qualified in technical areas of the game.The three major affiliates, the Southern, Devonport, and the Launceston Touch Associations, have provided all players in both the selected sides. Training sessions will rotate between the affiliates to offset the tyranny of distance and minimize the costs of travelling for all. Some players will have to travel as far as 300km to attend some of the sessions. The Girls’ first training camp will be this weekend 16 – 17 June, with the Boys meeting the following weekend. “I’ve got some parameters that I would like the team to achieve. I’ve got a vision for the team as to what I expect, and I’ll actually give the players, in partnership with myself and the other officials, some team goals,” Mr. Dowling said. Dowling will also be constructing individual training programs for each of his players. One of the main objectives of the team will be to gain respect. “We certainly want to finish as high as we possibly can. We’re not going to make the top four or five, that’s an unrealistic expectation, but I’d be confident that we could make the playoffs for the plate or shield finals. I want the opposition to think of us as being highly skilled and disciplined. We’ll play with a high level of intensity and meet all the challenges thrown at us and hopefully earn the respect of our opponents,” he said.  The Boys’ side will feature four players that played in the National Touch League Under-20s division in 2006. There will also be a number of experienced players that have progressed from the Under-15 ranks. One of the strike weapons for the Tasmanian Boys team will be newcomer Trent Gutteridge, who has only been playing Touch Football for about 18 months but has plenty of potential. “He’s still learning the game, but he’s exceptionally quick. We’ll be looking to develop him further through our training program,” Dowling said. The girls will be similarly strong. Last year the team aimed to finish in the top 15, and achieved its goal. This year they will be trying to improve on the result.One of the stars of the girls’ team will be 2006 TFA National 18 Years Youth Development Squad member Emily Hudson.  This year’s event will be the bubbly Hudson’s third tournament. In 2005, aged 15 and in just her first year of Touch Football, Hudson participated in her first Under-18 National Championships. She, along with current National Youth training squad member Emma Haines impressed all and sundry who attended the Inaugural National Youth Development Training Camp at Runaway Bay on the Gold Coast in 2006.The two “Tassie devils” competed well with their more experienced squad mates from NSW and Queensland, and showed great talent and determination at the Youth Camp to stamp themselves as players of the future. This year Emily is looking forward to taking on more of a leadership role. She said she was excited about the upcoming tournament. “For me the best thing will be seeing the other talent, especially in the NSW and QLD teams. You learn heaps from playing against quality players.  For the team it will definitely be about progression for the next two years because we’ve got a pretty young team this year,” Hudson said.  Hudson believed the Tasmanian side was definitely on the improve. “We’re a very quick side this year. Even though we’re a young group, we’ve all been playing for five or six years, so we know the game pretty well.” Both the boys and girls’ teams will be busy in preparation for September. When the 18 Years National Championships role around, keep an eye out for the Tasmanian teams and let’s hope they get their wish and extend their tournament into Finals day.last_img read more

3 days agoMoyes tells Man Utd ace Pogba to stay put

first_imgTagsTransfersAbout the authorPaul VegasShare the loveHave your say Moyes tells Man Utd ace Pogba to stay putby Paul Vegas3 days agoSend to a friendShare the lovePaul Pogba should stay with Manchester United, says former United boss David Moyes.The France international revealed in the summer he’s ready for a new challenge elsewhere.Moyes told talkSPORT: “Pogba is still Manchester United’s best midfield player and I think Pogba can play for any team in the world. He’d get a game for any team.“I’m not sure he’s a player who is consistent and makes a difference all the time.“I think for the profile he’s got, you hope he makes the difference. He doesn’t always do that for me.“But I think he should stay at Manchester United.“I don’t think he wins games like Messi does for Barcelona or Ronaldo’s done for Juventus.“He’s a really talented player and he’s got a lot to give.“His best for me was then he was at Juventus. He joined in more and got closer to the opposition box. Pogba is at his best getting near the box and trying to score a few goals.“If you were picking United’s team, I still think that Pogba would be in their midfield.” last_img read more

Video: Dalvin Cook’s Little Brother Meets Ole Miss’ Football Team

first_imgDalvin Cook celebrating with his helmet off.MIAMI GARDENS, FL – DECEMBER 30: MVP Dalvin Cook #4 of the Florida State Seminoles celebrates their 33 to 32 win over the Michigan Wolverines during the Capitol One Orange Bowl at Sun Life Stadium on December 30, 2016 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Marc Serota/Getty Images)Deandre Burnett is a guard on the Ole Miss basketball team. He’s also the brother of Dalvin Cook, Florida State’s top player.Ole Miss and Florida State will hit the field Monday night to open the 2016 season in the Camping World Kickoff. The Seminoles’ best player, running back Dalvin Cook, has a unique connection to Ole Miss: his brother plays basketball for the Rebels.Cook’s brother, Deandre Burnett, will be eligible to play guard for Ole Miss this season after sitting out last year. He’s a transfer from the University of Miami.In this hilarious video released today by Ole Miss basketball, Burnett meets Rebels quarterback Chad Kelly and members of the Ole Miss defense. When he is introduced to the latter, things get interesting.? Our dynamic new guard Deandre Burnett, brother of FSU’s Dalvin Cook, meets Chad Kelly & the @OleMissFB team ??? pic.twitter.com/uGZNdN4y4m— Ole Miss Basketball (@OleMissMBB) September 1, 2016That’s fantastic social media work by Ole Miss. Well-done.Florida State and Ole Miss kickoff at 8:00 p.m. ET Monday night from Camping World Stadium in Orlando. ABC will have the broadcast.last_img read more

Aboriginal groups pull out of premiers meeting AFN official

first_imgEDMONTON – An Ontario chief says three national Indigenous groups have told Alberta Premier Rachel Notley they won’t be at a meeting with the premiers next week in Edmonton.Isadore Day, Ontario chief with the Assembly of First Nations, says he supports the decision by leaders of the Assembly of First Nations, the Metis National Council and the Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami not to attend the meeting on Monday, the day before the premiers hold their own talks.“Our participation needs to be meaningful,” Day said Friday. “Talk is cheap.”The leaders of the three groups have scheduled a news conference for Monday morning in Toronto, saying they “expect full inclusion in intergovernmental tables.”Day said holding separate talks for Indigenous leaders “doesn’t meet the test of reconciliation.”Notley’s spokeswoman, Cheryl Oates, said officials are continuing to talk with aboriginal groups about their attendance.“We would like them to come,” she said. “We’ll keep working to encourage them to come.”Five national aboriginal groups were originally scheduled to attend the meeting. The Native Women’s Association of Canada and the Indigenous Peoples’ Assembly of Canada have not signalled whether they will be there.Day said Indigenous leaders are prepared to push harder if the provinces and territories don’t demonstrate a willingness to change their position on the meetings.“We are in troubled waters right now,” he said.last_img read more

Iakwahwatsiratatie Language Nest in Kahnawàke hopes to spread language lessons after infusion

first_imgDanielle RochetteAPTN NewsAlex Tekonwahkwen:ni Cross always wanted to learn her Mohawk language but never really had the opportunity.Now that she’s the mother of a five-month old, she enjoys her time in the Language Nest – where every word is in Kanienke’Ha.“Everyone here is supporting each other and they are helping each other and right down to your child,” she said.“I am sitting there and trying to learn someone might come in and hold your baby for you while you are learning and give it back to you so it is very supportive here.”The Language Nest launched four years ago to address the loss of Mohawk as a first language.“It is a natural environment right, a home environment but there is also some structures implemented throughout the day to help the parents as second language learners,” said Tatum Leronhienhewi McComber.“So it is very important to have the natural environment for the children to learn the language as their first language because the parents are learning as a second language they get the grammatical structures.”The program just got a big financial boost from the federal government.The Department of Canadian Heritage and Multiculturalism is providing $275,558 over two years to “preserve and promote the Mohawk language.”Marc Miller, the parliamentary secretary to Crown-Indigenous Relations, and a Mohawk speakers, said this is a step toward a path for promoting Indigenous languages.“With great respect for the efforts that people have made to preserve the language to struggle and hopefully the struggle will be lessen the next few years as we engage in a path which a lot of people is quite difficult but very important but a path of mutual respect that includes promotion of indigenous languages,” he said.Grand Chief Joseph Tokwiro Norton said it is not the responsibility of the Canadian government to preserve the language – but they have to support it.‘’It is not their responsibility it is ours but it is the responsibility of the government of Canada as well as other institutions to ensure that they support these activities.“It is the oppression it is all of the things that were done to us historically to take away that language now we are bringing it back and it is time for the government to support what we are doing that is the way I look at it’’For Cross, the dream of having her daughter speak Mohawk as a first language is coming true.“Sometimes when you leave here I am thinking in Mohawk but I do not know what these words mean,” she said.“But I know that it is starting to sink in and it is starting to work you know.”The federal government announced $89.9 million over three years on Indigenous languages and culture across the country.It also promised to introduce legislation to protect languages in law.20 consultation sessions were held to hear from people across the country.According to Canadian Heritage, the legislation is scheduled to be tabled in the House of Commons by the end of the year.drochette@aptn.ca@danfromestlast_img read more

Worlds most expensive XI team

first_imgThe World’s most expensive XI team has been named with the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and Neymar leading the wayThe title of the world’s most expensive player belongs to Neymar following his £200m move from Barcelona to Paris Saint-Germain last year.But at the age of 33, Ronaldo isn’t showing any signs of slowing down with Juventus having made him the fourth most expensive player in world football last month following his shock transfer from Real Madrid.Ahead of him in the list are Philippe Coutinho, who completed a stunning £113m move from Liverpool to Barcelona in January, and 19-year-old Kylian Mbappe, who has become the most expensive signing of the year after PSG elected to pay AS Monaco £121m for him this summer to make his stay at the club a permanent one after spending last season on loan.Maurizio Sarri, JuventusMaurizio Sarri satisfied despite Juventus’ draw at Fiorentina Andrew Smyth – September 14, 2019 Maurizio Sarri was satisfied with Juventus’ performance on Saturday afternoon after finishing a tough game at Fiorentina 0-0.Below is the list of the world’s most expensive players in a 4-3-3 formation:GK: Kepa Arrizabalaga (Chelsea) – £72mRB: Kyle Walker (Manchester City) – £48mCB: Aymeric Laporte (Manchester City) – £59mCB: Virgil Van Dijk (Liverpool) – £70mLB: Benjamin Mendy (Manchester City) – £52mCM: Paul Pogba (Manchester United) – £94mCM: Philippe Coutinho (Barcelona) – £113mCM: James Rodriguez (Real Madrid) – £68mRW: Kylian Mbappe (PSG) – £121mLW: Neymar (PSG) – £200mCF: Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus) – £105m(As reported on the Daily Star)last_img read more

Marko Arnautovic remains silent on West Ham future

first_imgWest Ham forward Marko Arnautovic refused to shed any light on his future at the club after helping Austria claim a 2-1 win over Northern Ireland on SundayThe 29-year-old came off the bench at Windsor Park to assist Valentino Lazaro’s stoppage-time winner in the UEFA Nations League.Arnautovic’s brother and agent, Daniel, suggested last week that a West Ham exit to a Champions League-type club could happen.But Arnautovic remained quiet on his future at London“I don’t want to talk about it. I am concentrated on West Ham,” Arnautovic told Sky Sports.“We have a big game against Manchester City on Saturday and I am only thinking about this game and the following games and what is being said is not my business.robert lewandowski, PolandReport: Euro 2020 qualifying Group G George Patchias – September 9, 2019 Euro 2020 qualifying Group G, saw Robert Lewandowski draw another blank.What should have been a plane sailing group for Poland, has turned out to…“My business is to perform on the pitch, to put in performances and that is what I want to do.”Despite knee injury troubles this season, Arnautovic is confident he will feature this Saturday for West Ham.“I will be OK,” he said.“Two days in a row was a bit too much but the gaffer asked me to play the last 25 minutes if needed, and it was needed. I am glad I could help.”Arnautovic has scored five goals in his opening 10 Premier League matches this term.last_img read more

Joao Cancelo expressed gratitude to Inter after Fridays encounter

first_imgAfter Juventus defeated Inter Milan in Friday’s Serie A blockbuster classic, Joao Cancelo has expressed his gratitude to his ex-clubThe Nerazzurri have practically scouted the Portuguese wing-back for the Bianconeri, helping him to adjust to the Italian Serie A before his €40.4m transfer from Valencia to the Allianz Stadium in the summer.What’s more, the Milanese giants were determined to keep hold of Cancelo during the summer, but have failed to see the deal through due to the UEFA Financial Fair Play regulations.Known for his devastating pace and excellent technique, Cancelo has emerged as one of the best Europe right-backs, establishing himself as an indispensable first-team member under Max Allegri this term.Serie A, Gian Piero GasperiniGasperini reveals why he rejected Inter Manuel R. Medina – September 14, 2019 Atalanta manager, Gian Piero Gasperini, has revealed why he rejected Internazionale Milan’s job proposal over the summer transfer window.After the derby, the skillful defender has revealed his affection for Inter.“It was an important victory against Inter, who are a great team and a direct rival for the Scudetto,” he told Sky Sport Italia, which has later been transmitted by FourFourTwo.“Inter was a very important team for me, that made me grow a lot. Now I’m wearing Juventus’ colors, and I think only of Juve, but Inter remains in my heart.”last_img read more

Kylian Mbappés 2018 gets crowned with the Kopa Award

first_imgFrench sensation Kylian Mbappé, was the first ever young player to receive the brand new Kopa Award during the Ballon d’Or gala last Monday.The world of football journalism is learning that they have to be more inclusive in order to evolve, they didn’t only give the first ever Ballon d’Or to the best female player of 2018 but they also gave the new Kopa Award to Kylian Mbappé.Created in the name of football legend Raymond Kopa, this prize is delivered to the best under 21 player in the world and the PSG forward was the obvious choice.Kylian Mbappé had already started his career two years ago when he mesmerized the whole world after making his official debut for AS Monaco, two years later he is already a World Cup champion with France and one of the most expensive football players in history after PSG paid a staggering €180 million for his services.His already impressive numbers from the first year as a professional have done nothing but grow since he moved to the French giants, he has even eclipsed Neymar during his time there and has even managed to earn a better spot in this year’s Ballon d’Or selection.Mbappé already is the future of world football, the true heir to Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi.I just want to follow my dreams…🖤 pic.twitter.com/By6KXDjTnZ— Kylian Mbappé (@KMbappe) December 4, 2018We would advise you to not confuse this new award with the Golden Boy prize, which is also delivered by the press but it was actually created by Italian newspaper Tuttosport.The France Football Kopa Award is brand new and Mbappé is the first-ever player to receive it, he was right there next to Luka Modric and Ada Hererberg taking all the pictures that confirm he is the best young player in the world right now.But Kylian Mbappé’s year is even more impressive by a few other factors, one being that he even beat Lionel Messi on the list of player voted by the press to be the best in the world this year.While Leo was ranked fifth with 280 points received, the French youngster was fourth with 347 votes in his name.Kylian was only 67 points behind the third place in the podium, which was his compatriot Antoine Griezmann and 131 points behind the second-placed Cristiano Ronaldo.Neymar responds to PSG criticism with a stunning winner Tomás Pavel Ibarra Meda – September 14, 2019 Despite all the backlash he got today at Parc des Princes, Neymar responded by scoring a stunning winner vs Strasbourg.We all knew that Neymar’s…Mbappé’s credit is huge given that he is still very young and his career is only getting started.Always together 😍.. pic.twitter.com/V4RcQzZhLD— Kylian Mbappé (@KMbappe) December 4, 2018With this position inside the list for the adult players, it was pretty obvious that Kylian Mbappé would be the first-ever Kopa Award winner as he stepped on stage to receive the huge honor.This young talent is the one who is leading the brand new generation of very talented footballers to the new era, but he is not the only one who is performing at an alarmingly high level as there are many other great players who have the skill to deliver results and trophies for their club or country.However, despite how impressive the new generations of talented players appear to be right now, Mbappé still seems like the very best star inside a whole constellation of truly amazing talents.We are all in awe with the potentially dominating career that he will have in the next decade, we are also eager to know if he will decide to remain at PSG for his whole career or if he will choose to make the jump to one of the biggest clubs in the world such as FC Barcelona or Real Madrid.We saw him cross paths with president Florentino Perez during the ceremony, maybe they spoke about the future, maybe not.Trophée KOPA 🏆✅ pic.twitter.com/eWAyrgcuGV— Kylian Mbappé (@KMbappe) December 3, 2018How long do you think it will take Kylian Mbappé to win his first Ballon d’Or? Please share your opinion in the comment section down below.last_img read more

High Winds Expected For Turnagain Arm Area

first_imgFacebookTwitterEmailPrintFriendly分享The National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory for the Turnagain Arm and Portage Valley area in effect from late this evening until Monday morning.* LOCATION…Through Turnagain Arm and Portage Valley.* WIND…East wind 45 to 65 mph with possible gusts to 85 mph.* TIMING…Winds will increase this afternoon and evening, possibly to as high as warning level beginning late tonight and persisting into Monday morning. Winds will then quickly diminish on Monday afternoon and evening. The strongest winds are expected to occur through Portage Valley from this event.* IMPACTS…Travel may be difficult. Trees may be blown over. Loose debris can be moved and damage property.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…A high wind watch means there is the potential for a hazardous high wind event. People are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation. Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should begin now.last_img read more

Friday AM Update Crews Work To Prevent Swan Lake Fire Spread

first_imgThey will be utilizing boats to shuttle crews across the Kenai River to begin securing fire edge along the southeast side. Reopen and plumb contingency lines on the north side of the Sterling highway west of the Resurrection Trail corridor to use as primary control lines to stop the eastern spread of the fire on the north side of the highway. According to the Incident Management Team in charge of the fire, the portions of the fire south of Sterling Highway remain the most active. Fire is backing and flanking through heavy fuels. Fire movement is more dependent upon available fuels. Fuel loading varies across the landscape. Primarily a surface fire burning in downed fuels. The Swan Lake Fire estimated at 142,542 acres with an increase in staff of 398 boots on the ground and crews in the air. Resources include: Hand Crews: 8, Helicopters: 3, Engines: 12, Water Tenders: 2, Dozers: 4. On Thursday, five additional hand crews arrived on the fire and have been deployed to the southwestern corner of the fire, just above Skilak Lake. These crews contain an average of twenty firefighters each.  Hose lay has been completed on this corner of the fire.A community meeting was held in Sterling on Thursday night to provide the public with an overview of the current strategy of the crews that are working on the fire. Facebook0TwitterEmailPrintFriendly分享Updated: 6AM:Good news going into the weekend as the Sterling Highway has remained consistently open. Motorists should still expect delays between MP75 and MP53, and be prepared for sudden closures due to both smoke and fire fighting activities. The contingency plan is for crews to continue constructing control lines in the Lake Skilak recreation area, on the south side of the Sterling highway, to stop spread to the west toward Sterling and the east toward Cooper Landing.Crews will continue securing fire line to the south of Sterling Highway to reduce the potential of future closures between Cooper Landing and Soldotna. Continued updates will be posted as they are made available. The plan for Friday and going into the weekend is to maintain traffic control on the Sterling Highway to reduce risk to public safety. Work with Homer Electric to assess damages to power lines and evaluate repair needs. Pending smoke impacts they plan to use aviation resources to check fire spread in critical areas throughout the fire.last_img read more

115 Rohingyas stopped to reach Malaysia

first_imgRohingya file photoPolice have prevented 115 Rohingyas from being smuggled to Malaysia in rickety fishing boats, officials said Saturday, but no suspected traffickers were detained.The group from the Kutupalong camp near Bangladesh’s border with Myanmar — the biggest refugee settlement in the world — were stopped as they headed to boats in the Bay of Bengal.The operation, which took place late Friday, was the latest in a series involving Rohingya refugees seeking to leave squalid camps for Malaysia, a more prosperous Muslim-majority nation.”We stopped a convoy of 15 auto-rickshaws and rescued 50 men, 39 women and 26 children,” Bangladeshi police officer Anwar Hossain told AFP.”But we could not catch any traffickers.”The officer said the Rohingyas, who had already paid the traffickers some money, would be taken back to the camp.About 740,000 of the Muslim minority Rohingya fled Myanmar for Bangladesh following a brutal military clampdown in the Buddhist-majority nation in August 2017.They joined another 300,000 Rohingya who have already been living in the overcrowded camps in the Cox’s Bazar area following previous bouts of violence.Thousands have risked their lives travelling to Malaysia and Thailand by boat when the Bay of Bengal is calm before monsoon season sets in at the end of March.So far this year, Bangladeshi security forces have stopped more than 300 Rohingya from attempting the trip on small fishing boats, which experts say are not fit for deep-sea navigation.The group detained Friday was the third prevented from heading to Malaysia this week alone.The UN refugee agency (UNHCR) has said the vulnerability of Rohingya to trafficking has increased enormously as livelihoods, support networks, and other fundamental systems are disrupted.”It is hard to comment on the scale of the activity, due to the clandestine nature of the activity,” UNHCR spokeswoman Caroline Gluck told AFP.”The community finds it difficult to speak up.”last_img read more

Seven Palestinians killed in Gaza border clashes

first_imgPalestinian protesters are seen near burning tyres during clashes along the Israeli border fence, east of Gaza City on 28 September. Photo: AFPSeven Palestinians, including two boys aged 12 and 14, were killed in clashes with Israeli forces along the Gaza border Friday, the health ministry in the Hamas-controlled strip said.It was the bloodiest day of border protests since 14 May, when more than 60 Palestinians died in violence accompanying the inauguration of the US embassy in Jerusalem, a move that enraged Palestinians.Nasser Mosabih, 12, Mohammed al-Houm, 14, and Iyad Al-Shaar, 18, were shot dead Friday in clashes along the frontier with Israel, health ministry spokesman Ashraf al-Qudra told AFP.Four men in their twenties were also killed in the widespread violence along the border, the spokesman said, adding that 210 people were hospitalised, including 90 with gunshot wounds.The Israeli army said in a statement that some 20,000 “rioters” had gathered at multiple sites along the border and that people had hurled “grenades and explosive devices in several different locations”.The military said troops fired “in accordance with standard operating procedures” and that an Israeli aircraft also struck two positions belonging the Gaza’s Islamist rulers Hamas.Palestinians have been protesting at least weekly along the Gaza border since 30 March in what they call the “Great March of Return”.Friday’s protests were bigger than those in recent weeks.At least 193 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire since March, the majority during border protests, while one Israeli soldier has been shot dead by a Palestinian sniper.Free fallThe Israeli military declined to comment on Friday’s reported deaths.It said in a statement that troops spotted several Palestinians breaching the border fence and briefly entering Israeli territory before fleeing back into Gaza.Israel holds Hamas responsible for unrest originating in the territory under its control.The two sides have fought three wars since 2008, and in between there have been spikes of violence marked by Palestinian cross-border rocket and mortar fire and retaliatory Israeli air strikes.Throughout the protests since March, Israel has said its actions are necessary to defend the border and accuses Hamas of using the protests as cover to attempt infiltrations and attacks.Palestinians and human rights groups say protesters have been shot while posing no real threat.The protests are demanding the right of Palestinian refugees to be allowed to return to homes their families fled in the 1948 war surrounding the creation of Israel and which are now in Israel.Israel says any such mass return would mean the end of it as a Jewish state.The march is also a protest against a more than 10-year-old Israeli blockade on the Gaza Strip.Repeated deadly Palestinian clashes with the army along the frontier have brought warnings of the risk of a new conflict.The World Bank on Tuesday said that the Gaza Strip’s economy is in “free fall” as cuts to aid and salaries add to the effects of the already crippling Israeli blockade.last_img read more

Over 5000 people left stranded on JammuSrinagar highway

first_img“More than 5,000 people are stranded at various places on the national highway,” an officer at the traffic control room Ramban told a news agency.The traffic police officials say that more than 2,000 vehicles, most of them passenger vehicles, continue to be stranded on the 300-km long national highway.”More than 2,000 vehicles continue to remain stranded on the highway more than half of them are passenger vehicles,” SSP Traffic (National Highway) Sanjay Kotwal said.Even as the weather conditions across the state have improved, it might take a while to throw the highway open for vehicular traffic.”The highway has suffered a lot of damage due to massive landslides that were triggered by heavy rain and snowfall. It might take some more time to throw the road open,” the officer said.Various stranded passengers said that they were facing hardships as the authorities, they say, have failed to help them.  “We don’t have anything to eat or drink, the administration has completely failed to help us. The children are without milk, we pray that the highway opens soon so that we can reach our destination,” said Khursheed Ahmed, one of the stranded passengers.Minister, 5 MLAs airlifted due to Highway closure Minister of State for Public Works Department Sunil Sharma and five MLAs stranded at various places due to closure of Jammu-Srinagar Highway, were airlifted here to take part in oath ceremony.”Minister and five other MLAs were airlifted in a chopper from different places to Jammu on Tuesday. They were stranded at different places due to closure of highway,” DIG Doda-Kishtwar range, Nissar Ahmed told a news agency. Others included Doda MLA Shakti Parihar, Ramban MLA Naleem Langeh, Bhaderwah MLA Daleep Parihar and two MLAs Khalil Bhand and Abdul Majeed Bhat from Kashmir, he said, adding, they were stranded at various places on the highway.Efforts are being made to airlift another MLA G M Saroori from Kishtwar, who is stranded there due to blockade of Batote-Kishtwar road as well as the highway.last_img read more

Malda couple beaten up by brothers over property dispute

first_imgKolkata: An elderly couple from Malda was beaten up by their family members over property dispute.The incident took place at Kashimpur village of Chanchal in Malda on Tuesday morning. The couple has been undergoing treatment at Malda Medical College and Hospital. According to the hospital sources, both of them received head injuries in the incident. It was learnt that a quarrel broke out between three brothers over possession of a plot of 16 cottah. The victim’s younger brothers went to the spot in the morning to capture the disputed piece of land while the eldest brother and his wife opposed them. It was alleged that the two brothers with the help of some of their associates attacked the elderly couple. They were hit on head with a stick. The locals rescued the injured couple and took them to the hospital. The villagers told the police that there was an on-going family quarrel for the past few months. This time it turned ugly. A specific complaint has been lodged at Chanchal police station on the basis of which police have started a probe. Two accused have been at large since the incident took place. The family members of the victims are being interrogated in this regard.last_img read more

Drinking coffee may lead to longer life

first_imgYour daily cup of joe may help you live longer, say scientists who have found that drinking coffee may lower the risk of death due to heart disease, cancer, stroke and diabetes. People who consumed a cup of coffee a day were 12 per cent less likely to die compared to those who did not drink coffee. This association was even stronger for those who drank two to three cups a day – 18 per cent reduced chance of death. Lower mortality was present regardless of whether people drank regular or decaffeinated coffee, suggesting the association is not tied to caffeine, said Veronica W Setiawan, associate professor at University of Southern California (USC) in the US. Also Read – Add new books to your shelfThe study, published in the journal Annals of Internal Medicine, used data from the Multiethnic Cohort Study, a collaborative effort between the University of Hawaii Cancer Center and USC’s Keck School of Medicine. The ongoing Multiethnic Cohort Study has more than 215,000 participants and bills itself as the most ethnically diverse study examining lifestyle risk factors that may lead to cancer. “Until now, few data have been available on the association between coffee consumption and mortality in nonwhites in the US and elsewhere,” researchers said. Also Read – Over 2 hours screen time daily will make your kids impulsive”Such investigations are important because lifestyle patterns and disease risks can vary substantially across racial and ethnic backgrounds, and findings in one group may not necessarily apply to others,” they said. Since the association was seen in four different ethnicities, Setiawan said it is safe to say the results apply to other groups. “This study is the largest of its kind and includes minorities who have very different lifestyles,” Setiawan said. “Seeing a similar pattern across different populations gives stronger biological backing to the argument that coffee is good for you whether you are white, African-American, Latino or Asian,” he said. Previous research by USC and others have indicated that drinking coffee is associated with reduced risk of several types of cancer, diabetes, liver disease, Parkinson’s disease, Type 2 diabetes and other chronic diseases. Setiawan said any positive effects from drinking coffee are far-reaching because of the number of people who enjoy or rely on the beverage every day. “Coffee contains a lot of antioxidants and phenolic compounds that play an important role in cancer prevention,” Setiawan said. “Although this study does not show causation or point to what chemicals in coffee may have this ‘elixir effect,’ it is clear that coffee can be incorporated into a healthy diet and lifestyle,” he said.last_img read more

Snehodiya to be inaugurated on June 25

first_imgKolkata: Debashis Sen, Additional Chief Secretary, IT&E, who is also the chairman of the West Bengal Housing Infrastructure Development Corporation (WBHIDCO) announced that the much-awaited project of Snehodiya, a proposed habitat for senior citizens in New Town would be inaugurated by Firhad Hakim, the Urban Development and Municipal Affairs Minister, on June 25. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee had named the project ‘Snehodiya’. Sen was addressing a session at the 5th Real Estate Conclave on ‘Navigating the Undercurrents’ at a city hotel on Saturday. Also Read – Rs 13,000 crore investment to provide 2 lakh jobs: Mamata’Snehodiya’ is a project of the WBHIDCO, which is a first-of-its-kind venture by any state government agency. There are around 100 rooms and a guest house comprising six rooms. The project has come up opposite Swapno Bhor on a 3.5 acre land and has a two-storeyed building housing a library, an auditorium and a coffee corner. It has been decided that 75 percent of the price paid at the time of purchase will be refunded to the occupants or their heirs in case the flat is vacated. There will be a senior citizens’ park. There will be doctors, nurses and attendants to look after the elderly. It will have all the modern facilities, Sen said. He also stressed on the necessity of introducing more paying guest facilities in and around New Town and Sector V to accommodate a large number of working professionals coming to the city. Nandu Belani, president of CREDAI, Bengal, said the real estate is a major contributor to the economy in Eastern India and it plays an important role in fulfilling the basic needs and aspirations of the common people.last_img read more

STV the broadcaster and Scottish ITV franchise ho

first_imgSTV, the broadcaster and Scottish ITV franchise holder, has launched a content platform on the YouView platform.STV was selected as one of the first of two initial additional content partners from over 300 expressions of interest from potential partners, with Sky’s new internet TV service Now TV being the other partner. STV Player is now available on YouView, the UK’s new connected TV platform.Viewers can watch STV programmes live as well as catching up on shows including Coronation Street, Emmerdale and X Factor via the STV Player or through the search function on the YouView programme guide. The service is only available within STV’s Scottish license area.Richard Halton, YouView CEO, said: “We are very pleased to have STV on board as one of the first content partners for YouView. STV is one of the UK’s most popular television networks offering brilliant original content and it is great that their player is now live on YouView, giving users on-demand access to the channel.”last_img read more

Good day And welcome to another week  We had som

first_imgGood day. And welcome to another week.  We had some great weekend weather which I took advantage of watching my son’s football game Saturday and daughter’s soccer and field hockey games yesterday.  None of the games resulted in wins, but I enjoyed myself in spite of the outcomes.  The labor data here in the US provided the equity markets with a pleasant outcome Friday as stocks ended the week on a positive note.  The dollar didn’t have such a good week, dropping just over one and one half percent vs. the major currencies.  This week will be dominated by the FOMC meeting here in the US and the German constitutional court ruling on the other side of the pond.But we will start with a recap of events on Friday.  The US labor department reported the biggest decline in factory jobs in two years, contributing to a disappointing increase in payrolls during August.  The US economy added just 96,000 jobs last month after a revised 141,000 increase in July.  The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a gain of 130,000 jobs.  Factory payrolls declined by 15,000 workers last month and was the major contributor to the drop in jobs.  Details of the report showed the workweek shrank, and the number of industries hiring new workers plunged to the lowest level in almost three years.  Definitely not a good sign for the prospects of the unemployed factory workers, and exactly what the current administration didn’t want to see.  A lot was made of the rebound in the auto industry, but the data showing manufacturing jobs have decreased throws cold water on that line of thought.But the President and his supporters can still point to the unemployment rate which dropped to 8.1%.  Yes, the number of people working dropped, at the same time the unemployment rate also dropped.  Much like last month, the unemployment rate and monthly jobs data seemed to be in conflict.  But unlike last month when the difference was blamed on inconsistencies in the generation of the reports, this month’s conflict could be more easily explained.  Americans are leaving the workforce at a faster pace than they are entering it.   368,000 Americans left the labor force last month, most of them giving up looking for new work.  The participation rate, which shows the share of working-age people in the labor force, fell to 63.5% from 63.7%.  There are currently fewer working-age people in the labor force than at any time since September 1981.  That one piece of data is a great indicator of just how bad things are here in the US.The labor data have increased the odds of action by Bernanke this week.  The Federal Open Markets Committee will be meeting on Wednesday and Thursday, and the Chairman is expected to announce another round of stimulus for the markets during his press conference Thursday morning.  During my presentations out in San Francisco, I shared my thoughts that there was just slightly higher than a 50% chance of another stimulus announcement this month.  I felt it was just too close to the Presidential election for the Fed to act; as they try to avoid the appearance of being too political.  But Chairman Bernanke has pointed toward the stagnant labor market as the key to further stimulus, and Friday’s report should provide him plenty of cover to avoid looking too political.  The markets are certainly expecting Bernanke to announce another round of stimulus; I saw a survey this morning which put the odds of another stimulus announcement this week at 99%!!The question now is exactly what will Bernanke announce.  Some now believe he will model his new program off of the ECB’s, announcing unlimited additional bond buying.  This would allow the Fed to continue purchasing bonds until they feel the economy shows more definite signs of recovery.  The advantage of this program, as shown by the reaction to the ECB’s announcement last week, is that the markets can’t question the ability of the central bank to take action.  But unlike the ECB program which is solely aimed at sovereign debt within 3 years, the Feds new program will likely be aimed at mortgage debt with longer maturities.  Another difference is that the ECB won’t buy bonds unless a country asks for a rescue, and then the bond purchases will come with austerity commitments by the country seeking help.  The Fed’s quantitative easing program won’t have any austerity measure tied to it, in fact it is more of an ‘anti austerity’ program adding to our deficits and debt in the interest of stimulating growth.Friday’s labor report and the resulting increase in expectations for another round of stimulus led to a rally in gold and treasuries and a continued fall in the value of the US$. Investors, worried about the inflationary impact of additional stimulus measures, took gold to the lofty levels it was trading at back in March.  While prices moved down a bit going into the weekend, gold is still firmly entrenched in an upward trend and certainly looks like it will challenge it’s former highs.The dollar lost ground vs. most of the major currencies on Friday, ending a week in which the dollar index fell over 1.5%.  I guess the ‘Chuck is off the desk rally’ held true again.  In years past, whenever Chuck is off the desk for an extended period, we always seem to have a currency rally, and last week’s dollar action was a confirmation of this pattern.  As I explained last week, the reason for the fall in the US$ is a fairly simple case of supply and demand.  The Fed will be creating a whole lot of dollars which it will be using for the bond purchases, and this increase in supply will eventually lead to inflation.  It may not be reflected immediately in the price of goods and services, as international investors still seem to have an appetite for the freshly minted currency.  But eventually the demand will slacken, and at that point we could see a spike in inflation.  Bernanke has told us he is aware of this risk, but he is convinced the Fed can pull the newly created dollars back out of the markets as fast as he is adding them.  I guess we will just have to wait and see if he is correct, but the markets are starting to hedge their bets.The ECB action last week helped the euro push above the $1.28 handle, but it gave it back and is hovering just below it this morning.  Concerns over the German Constitutional ruling due out this week, combined with renewed concerns in Greece put a lid on the appreciation of the single currency.   The German court is expected to give its ruling on Germany’s participation in the European Stability Mechanism on Wednesday.  The court is expected to allow for Germany’s participation, but currency traders are worried they may put stipulations on any future participation of Germany in European bailouts.  Both German Chancellor Angel Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble are confident the German court will allow the establishment of the ESM, allowing the bailouts to continue.Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is due to meet officials from the ECB, IMF, and EU today.  Samaras failed to secure an agreement to the 11.5 billion spending cuts required for the release of the next round of rescue funding.  After this year’s two elections, Samaras is operating with a minority government and must get his two coalition partners to agree to the austerity measures.  At least one of the two is demanding the cuts be combined with growth measures. “The recession is deep and if these measures aren’t accompanied by growth measures, they will be ineffective,” according to Greece’s Democratic Left leader Fotis Kouvelis.  “Our European partners need to know that Greeks can’t take anymore.  Nothing can be taken for granted.”  Sounds like we could be in for some more volatility in Greece.  We warned you that the rollercoaster ride of the euro isn’t over yet, so just make sure you are strapped in!The Canadian dollar rallied to a yearly high this morning after a report showed employment in our northern neighbor rose faster than forecast.  Canadian employment rose by 34,300 jobs in August, offsetting a decrease of 30,400 the month before.  The unemployment rate remained at 7.3%, right on target with median forecasts.  While the number was definitely a positive sign, the Canadian economy is expected to remain in a slow growth mode.  Last week the Bank of Canada left the key interest rate unchanged at 1% in an effort to encourage investment and consumption to drive growth.Carney has reflected a hawkish tone, as increases in the prices of commodities which make up the majority of Canada’s exports threaten to push up Canadian inflation rates.  The increase in commodity prices caused the BOC to reiterate that interest rates may have to be raised in order to prevent inflation from accelerating.  Following last week’s BOC meeting, Carney said “some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate.”  Higher interest rates would give even more support to the Canadian dollar, sending it to new yearly highs.The Australian dollar moved lower in early European trading after a report showed China’s imports slowed.  Both Canada and Australia have commodity driven economies, and the commodity markets are dependent on strong demand  from China.  A report released earlier today showed China’s imports slid 2.6% in August from a year earlier, the first decline since January.  The same report showed Chinese exports rose 2.7% and a different report showed production increased 8.9%.  The Chinese President sounded a warning, saying China’s economic expansion faces ‘notable downward pressure’.The pace of the global economic recovery is going to be dependent on Asia, as both the US and Europe’s economies continue to struggle.  So the news that Chinese imports slowed are worrying.  China has been slowly changing from an export driven economy into one driven more by internal consumption, so the slowdown in imports is concerning.  And concerns regarding the Asian growth prospects were heightened further with the release of Japanese GDP measures which showed the economy grew at just .7% during the 2nd quarter, less than the preliminary reports which predicted a 1.4% increase.  The median forecast of economists was right in the middle of the two figures at 1%.  The spending which was necessitated by last year’s earthquake and tsunami helped push GDP up slightly, but that spending is now over and gridlock in the Japanese parliament is preventing any additional stimulus.  There is a good chance the Japanese economy could slip back into contraction in the 3rd quarter.  I continue to warn against investments in the Japanese yen, and actually look at it as one of the currencies which could fall the most as investors start to move back into higher yielding currencies.To recap. Friday’s monthly jobs reports showed a US economy which is still struggling to recover, and put the possibility of a stimulus announcement by the Fed at almost 100%.  The future of the ESM (and therefore the euro) rests in the hands of a German Constitutional court which is expected to rule later this week.  But the court is widely expected to rule in the euro’s favor, and the single currency continued to rally.  The possibility of another round of stimulus had gold rallying along with the commodity currencies.  The loonie hit a yearly high but the Australian dollar moved lower after a Chinese report showed imports decreasing.  Japan’s GDP came in at ½ of what was originally predicted, and further stimulus isn’t in the cards for the Japanese yen.Currencies today 9/10/12. American Style: A$ $1.0353, kiwi .8106, C$ $1.0239, euro 1.2781, sterling 1.6009, Swiss $1.0562. European Style: rand 8.1789, krone 5.7822, SEK 6.6390, forint 223.04, zloty 3.2178, koruna 19.177, RUB 31.7243, yen 78.28, sing 1.2365, HKD 7.7559, INR 55.3875, China 6.3377, pesos 12.9622, BRL 2.029, Dollar Index 80.336, Oil $96.46, 10-year 1.67%, Silver $33.6925, Gold $1,734.57, and Platinum $1,596.75That’s it for today.  Tough loss for both our football teams this weekend.  Mizzou looked good for the first three quarters in their opening SEC game vs. Georgia, but just couldn’t hang with the dawgs at the end of the game.  And the St. Louis Rams dropped their season opener during the final 10 seconds of the game played up in Detroit.  My son’s high school team got routed on Saturday morning after their game Friday night was delayed because of a storm which rolled through during the first half.  Not a good football weekend, but I enjoyed it still as the weather was absolutely fantastic Saturday and Sunday.  The trading floor has a new look this morning as workers installed several new desks over the weekend to keep up with our growth.  Things are a bit cozier now and I’m sure the noise volume will increase as we put butts in all the new seats; but that is what I like about being out on the floor, all the noise and activity are what makes it a trading floor.  Gone on a bit long this morning, so I will just thank all of you readers for sharing your morning with me.  Hopefully this will be a Marvelous Monday and a great start to your week!Chris Gaffney, CFA SVP & Director of Sales T. 314-951-1619 EverBank World Markets 8300 Eager Road, Ste. 700, St. Louis, MO. 63144 EverBank.comlast_img read more

The Shiller PE SP 500 divided by the 10year av

first_imgThe Shiller P/E (S&P 500 divided by the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings) is now 27, versus a long-term historical norm of 15 prior to the late 1990s bubble. Importantly, the profit margin embedded into the Shiller P/E is currently 6.7% versus a historical norm of just 5.4%. The implied margin is simply the denominator of the Shiller P/E divided by current S&P 500 revenues (the ratio of trailing 12-month earnings to revenues is even higher at 8.9%). As I showed in “Margins, Multiples and the Iron Law of Valuation,” taking this embedded margin into account significantly improves the usefulness and correlation of the Shiller P/E in explaining actual subsequent market returns. With this adjustment, the margin-adjusted Shiller P/E is now nearly 34, easily more than double its historical norm. This fact is important, because the Shiller P/E averaged 40 during the first nine months of 2000 as the tech bubble was peaking. But that Shiller P/E was associated with an embedded profit margin of only 5.0%. Adjusting for that embedded margin brings the margin-adjusted Shiller P/E at the 2000 peak to 37. Quite simply, stocks are a claim not on one or two years of earnings, but on a very long-term stream of cash flows that will actually be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For the S&P 500, that stream has an effective duration of about 50 years. At normal valuations, stocks have a duration of about half that because a larger proportion of the cash flows is delivered up front. The point is that our concerns about valuation aren’t based on what profit margins might do over the next several years. To take earnings-based valuation measures at face value here is essentially a statement that current record-high profit margins, despite being highly cyclical across history, will remain at a permanently high plateau for the next five decades. That’s the only way that one can use current earnings as representative of the long-term stream of cash flows that stocks will deliver over time. In order to use a simple P/E multiple to value stocks, this representativeness assumption is an absolute requirement. On other measures that have an even stronger historical correlation with actual subsequent market returns than either the Shiller P/E or the S&P 500 price/operating earnings ratio, the ratio of stock market capitalization to GDP is now about 1.33, compared to a pre-bubble norm of 0.55. The S&P 500 price/revenue multiple is now about 1.80, versus a historical norm of 0.80. On the measures we find most reliably associated with actual subsequent 10-year market returns (with a correlation of about 90%), the S&P 500 is not just double, but about 120-140% above historical norms. On a broader set of reliable but more varied measures, the elevation averages about 116%. Current equity valuations provide no margin of safety for long-term investors. One might as well be investing on a dare. It may seem preposterous to suggest that equities are literally more than double the level that would provide a historically adequate long-term return, but the same was true in 2000, which is why the S&P 500 experienced negative total returns over the following decade, even by 2010 after it had rebounded nearly 80% from the 2009 lows. Compared with 2000 when we estimated negative 10-year total returns for the S&P 500 even on the most optimistic assumptions, we presently estimate S&P 500 10-year nominal total returns averaging about 1.3% annually over the coming decade. Low interest rates don’t change this expectation—they just make the outlook for a standard investment mix even more dismal and the case for alternative investments stronger than at any point since 2000. I’ll repeat that if one associates historically “normal” equity returns with Treasury bill yields of about 4%, the promise to hold short-term interest rates at zero for 3-4 years only “justifies” equity valuations 12-16% above historical norms. Again, at more than double those historical norms, current equity valuations provide no margin of safety for long-term investors. To put some full-cycle perspective around present valuations, understand that 1929 and 2000 are the only historical references to similar extremes. Moreover, aside from the 2000-2002 bear market (which ended at fairly elevated valuations but still allowed us to shift to a constructive outlook in early 2003), no bear market in history—including 2009—ended with prospective 10-year returns less than 8% (See “Ockham’s Razor and the Market Cycle” to review the arithmetic of these estimates). This was true even in historical periods when short- and long-term interest rates were similar to current levels. Currently, such an improvement in prospective equity returns would require a move to about 1,200 on the S&P 500, which we would view as a fairly pedestrian completion of the current market cycle—certainly not an outlier from the standpoint of historical experience. Major secular valuation lows like 1949, 1974, and 1982 pushed stocks to valuations consistent with prospective 10-year returns over 18% annually, and dragged the S&P 500 price/revenue ratio to about 0.40, and the ratio of market capitalization/GDP to about 0.33. At present, a secular valuation low would require “S&P 500” to be not only an index but a price target—though one that would also make a rather satisfying megaphone pattern out of the past 15 years of market action. Such an outcome only seems preposterous if one ignores the cyclicality of profit margins and assumes they have established a permanently high plateau. In any event, with the current price/revenue ratio at 1.80 and market cap/GDP at 1.33, the notion that stocks are in the early phase of a secular bull market (as some Wall Street analysts have suggested) can only reflect a complete ignorance of the historical record. The Line Between Rational Speculation and Market Collapse However—and this is really where the experience of the past few years and our research-based adaptations come into play—there are some conditions that historically appear capable of supporting what might be called “rational speculation” even in a severely overvalued market. Depending on the level of overvaluation, a safety net might be required in any event, and that would certainly be the case if those conditions were to re-emerge here. But following my 2009 insistence on stress-testing our methods against Depression-era data, and the terribly awkward transition that we experienced until we nailed down these distinctions in our present methods, the central lesson is worth repeating: Neither our stress-testing against Depression-era data, nor the adaptations we’ve made in response extreme yield-seeking speculation, do anything to diminish our conviction that historically reliable valuation measures are of immense importance to investors. Rather, the lessons to be drawn have to do with the criteria that distinguish periods where valuations have little near-term impact from periods where they suddenly matter with a vengeance. I detailed these lessons in my June 16, 2014 comment—“Formula for Market Extremes” (see the section titled Lessons from the Recent Half Cycle). That’s really the point at which we were finally able to put a box around this awkward transition and view it as fully addressed. See also “Air Pockets, Free Falls, and Crashes,” “A Most Important Distinction,” and “Hard-Won Lessons and the Bird in the Hand.” Historically, the emergence of extremely overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions has typically been followed by an “unpleasant skew”—a succession of small but persistent marginal new highs, followed by a vertical collapse in which weeks or months of gains are wiped out in a handful of sessions. In prior market cycles, more often than not, periods of extremely overextended conditions were also already accompanied by a subtle deterioration in market internals or widening credit spreads. In recent years, the persistent yield-seeking speculation encouraged by quantitative easing has weakened the overlap between these two conditions. That is, we’ve had repeated periods of severely overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions, but they often have not been accompanied by internal deterioration or widening credit spreads. In those periods, stocks were generally resilient to significant losses. In contrast—even since 2009—periods that have joined 1) overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions with 2) deteriorating internals or widening credit spreads have been responsible for nearly stairstep market losses. During the tech bubble, we introduced considerations related to market internals (what I often called “trend uniformity”) as an overlay to our value-driven models. So our pre-2009 method of classifying market return/risk profiles had this distinction hard-wired into it. The ensemble methods that came out of our 2009-2010 stress-testing efforts were more effective in market cycles across history—including Depression-era data—but while they included trend-sensitive measures, they didn’t impose them as an overlay. The basic narrative of the transition from those pre-2009 methods to our present ones boils down to 1) our self-inflicted stress testing miss, and 2) the need to re-introduce those overlays (albeit in a somewhat different form) to make our methods more tolerant of speculative bubbles. We certainly learned all of this the hard way, and my hope is that others will draw some benefit from that experience. Unfortunately, my sense is that many have learned entirely the wrong lesson, and are just as vulnerable to the next crash as they were to the other two collapses in recent memory. You can see the effect of imposing those overlays in the narrowing of conditions under which we view a hard-negative outlook as appropriate. See last week’s comment, “Iceberg at the Starboard Bow,” for a chart of the cumulative performance of the S&P 500 across history in periods restricted to the conditions we presently observe. Now, if we do observe an improvement in market internals and credit spreads, it would not make valuations any less obscene, but it would significantly ease our immediate concerns about market losses. A safety net would be required in any event, but there is a range of possible outlooks between hard-negative and constructive with a safety net. I suspect that the range of variation in our investment outlook is likely to be very confusing in the coming years to those who have swallowed the hook that I’m a permabear, because our present methods would have encouraged an unhedged, leveraged investment stance through about 62% of history (including over 20% of recent cycle—though at no time in the past three years). That’s exactly what I encouraged for years following the 1990 bear market—a leveraged stance. Those who’ve followed my work over the long term should recognize that the framework I’ve presented helps to understand both my major successes and my periodic failures—exasperating during bubbles, but ultimately vindicated—through decades in the financial markets. This isn’t an accident, because it also helps to understand the bubbles and crashes of the equity market itself in market cycles across a century of history. What this framework requires, primarily, is the ability to withstand the cognitive dissonance of markets that are outrageously overvalued or undervalued, but persist until subtle deterioration or improvement in observable market internals and credit spreads indicates a shift in investor risk preferences. Again, we completed the transition from our pre-2009 method to our present method of classifying market return/risk profiles in June. The resulting adaptations are robust to market cycles across history, including the Depression, including recent bubbles and crashes, and including the current cycle. With these adaptations in place, nothing in recent years leaves us concerned that we would be unable to navigate a long continuation of the recent bull market (unlikely as we might view that outcome). We don’t need to hope for a market collapse, nor dread the possibility of a further advance. Our primary goal is simply to maintain a historically informed discipline and align our outlook consistently as market conditions change. At present, the fact that we are highly concerned about market risk is a reflection of a market environment that joins extremely overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions with still-troubling dispersion in market internals and a widening of credit spreads. That will change. In short, our concerns about market risk remain extreme at present, and will shift considerably as the evidence changes.last_img read more